SNOWY SEND
Beware of the Ides of March…Minnesota style. Golfing one Sunday, shoveling the next. The paralells between our weather and our politics are too easy.
Since there’s time, here’s a Sunday Send with the Mood Mindset of Minnesota in March of a mid-term open Governor’s race.
Afterall measuring snowfall by the inches on the grill, is a Minnesota tradition.
The soon-to-be 21-year old daughter informs me today is National Espresso Martini Day, I guess that bougie coffee maker gift for Christmas is going to good use.
March Madness brackets released at 5PM for the men and 7PM for the women.
Wolves play at 12 noon, Wild play at 6:30.
Oscars tonight.
Sunday Take featured Sen. Ron Latz and a check in on the legislative session – lots of noise, few signals and a feeling that in a closely divided legislature isn’t listening to the data, but only to the loudest voices. LISTEN: https://fluence-media.co/4bKCXnS
The Minnesota Mindset right now seems as proud as ever for the left and lacking as much focus as ever for the right. It’s the age of selective facts for both, but the NYT Thomas Friendman piece today weaves the ICE rebellion in a manner that is tough to argue with, something that Minnesota Republicans are going to battle until November.
There aren’t two angles of debate anymore, but the dominant ones appear to be mean or mock – and currenly mocking is winning, because at least it helps us laugh.
The mocking from the SNL skit last night about the MAHA movement is one of the funniest pieces I’ve seen in a while. No matter where you’re at on the health and politics spectrum – we can all laugh a little. WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/4sbBXyW
How do you know this is a serious story, there was cancelled a book talk about a book about a blizzard – because of a blizzard.
Stay safe, and recharge if you can.
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TRACKING 2026
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THE MN MINDSETTHE MINNY MINDSET
The “Mood of Minnesota” is often the lens that I try to convey here, but after a sprint to start the year that requires pacing – there may be a shift to the Minnesota Mindset ™️, but it’s only March.
While predictably progressive and praise-filled - one lens from Thomas “one of us” Friedman today in the New York Times. The Times has reporters on the ground here full-time – since we created a lot of news, but in most cases national media has started to think of us as “fly-to” country when one of our too oft national stories breaks.
Friedman suggests Minnesota matters more than Iran, that’s big responsibility which will only feed our exceptionalism that isn’t as exceptionally economically or educationally anymore.
Friedman does however pull out some notable contrasts that fit our mindset, and something we can lean into.
VERBATIM:
“Here’s some free advice for Trump and Miller: Minnesotans are winter people. Don’t come for winter people in winter. They’re not afraid of the cold. Just the opposite. The weather has forged a unique Minnesota neighborliness — not everywhere, not always, but in a lot of places on a lot of days. Its power is rooted in its ordinariness — just a basic human impulse to look out for your neighbors and, yes, dig their cars out of the snow on Monday because you know they will do the same for you on Wednesday.
Observing it up close made me think about what Stephen Miller told CNN’s Jake Tapper in January: “We live in a world in which you can talk all you want about international niceties and everything else. But we live in a world, in the real world, Jake, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power.”
Well, Stephen, maybe you don’t know the real world after all, because your private ICE army — “governed by strength” and “force” — was sent packing by a bunch of moms and dads armed only with cellphone cameras and whistles, ready to walk out on a freezing morning in bathrobes and bunny slippers, to defend their neighbors, some of whom they barely knew.”
The full Friedman piece, HERE: https://fluence-media.co/4ly2CUn
The counter reality is shared by Democrat Rahm Emanuel in last week’s WSJ by another “one of us” Minnesota journalist John McCormick. The challenge is that it’s about 2028 Nationally not 2026 Minnesota.
VERBATIM:
“Asked at a recent fundraiser in this affluent Detroit suburb how Democrats might be able to win back the working-class voters who have defected to President Trump, Emanuel faulted his party in 2024 for being too focused on things such as transgender rights and not enough on pocketbook issues.
“We weren’t very good in this last election at the kitchen table. We weren’t very good in the family room,” said the former congressman, mayor and U.S. ambassador to Japan. “The only room we occupied in the house was the bathroom—and it’s the smallest room in the house.”
The full McCormick piece, HERE: https://fluence-media.co/3PBWiiq
MOCKERY + MEMES > MEAN
The mocking of the opposition seems to be a Minnesota-nice style of mean girl. You know the judgmental whispers that we pretend don’t happen here? The political version is peak in the core of the Minneapolis DFL. Effective at generating “click-gasms”, and ineffective at addressing actual real issues, especially in the heart of the drama driven DSA by outlets like the WedgeLive and the Racket. The counter voice of Alpha News and the Center for the American Experiment have a self-important seriousness that falls just as flat outside the bubble they all curate.
That leaves it to the parties, and the candidates to feed the content, for the viral effect. The challenge is the algorithm, since we each have our own based on what we click, like the luggage ads that are dominating my feed this weekend.
The signals, especially economic aren’t great for Minnesota, but the noise will tell you that we just need to spend more. That’s not possible unless the DFLers have another trifecta, without an executive that says no.
Reinforcing the words I’ve spoken for the past several years, Axios provides a good reminder to those in their own partisan bubbles that the “normal people” aren’t as divided as the algorithm or the insiders.
VERBATIM:
“Most Americans are too busy for social media, too normal for politics, too rational to tweet. They work, raise kids, coach Little League, go to a house of worship, mow their neighbor’s lawn — and never post a word about any of it.
This isn’t a small minority. It’s a monstrous, if silent, majority. Most Americans are patriotic, hardworking, neighbor-helping, America-loving, money-giving people who don’t pop off on social media or plot for power.
The hidden truth: Most people agree on most things, most of the time. And the data validates this, time and time again.”
The other reality in March is most people aren’t yet paying attention in the mindset of the election. Therefore the January to March Minnesota Mindset could change, afterall, voters can be fickle.
One recent Republican effective meme of mockery that took off was Rep. Dave Pinto’s deadpanned take on shoplifting in a recent Minnesota House committee. Pinto is a smart more policy than politics legislator who was mocking his Republican colleagues, but without context the clip was as ridiculous as Mary Moriarty’s out of state driven PR campaign trying to convince us that she was serious about prosecuting crime. HERE: https://fluence-media.co/4cK1D0Q
For Republicans, who must show they can win statewide before anyone will believe it – the Trump/MAGA loyalty will be tested this year in Greater Minnesota. That’s because DFLers and those who opposed Trump are energized. One report from DFLers in Pine County said that half of the Senate district delegates were first timers and fired up. That doesn’t mean Pine County is going to flip – but it means that headwinds for Republicans are shaping up to be stronger than they have been since 2008. What happened in 2008? A horrible economy and an unpopular war that lingered too long.
To get traction and awareness, Republicans need to be more effective in mainstreaming the memes, especially on fraud and spending that the Walz-era created. Afterall, they already have a corner on the important “mainstream” issues of being anti-trans and pro-old MN Flag.
Republicans need to know that “those who oppose Trump”, are not DFLers per se. Instead, they are impacted by the economy, offended by the meanness, and frustrated by the war. In Minnesota, they may live outside the metro area and have immigrants as neighbors that fuel and create the local economy. They could also be the miners and farmers who voted for Trump twice but are ready to give up on the lack of results – in their lives.
Minnesota Nice isn’t always warm, but it’s rarely mean or angry – especially in our politics. That’s why the meanness of the national Republicans isn’t helpful in Minnesota.
Some hopeful news for the GOP is that it is unlikely they will have a “mean” candidate at the top of the gubernatorial ticket, and it is highly likely that the general election will be a “Female Fest”, with a matchup between Sen. Klobuchar vs. Speaker Lisa DeMuth and either Rep. Angie Craig or Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan facing off against Michele Tafoya.
That will naturally cast a different tone and mindset for the election.
The DFL’s challenges seem less overwhelming than the GOP, but they are significant to those who follow closely. A lame duck Governor who has begun to frustrate his own party should be a nonfactor as soon as the session is over. That said, Walz’s inability to be irrelevant may only create moments of cringe greater than his recent attempts to seem relevant on fraud.
Republicans will point to his term, fraud and lack of political self-awareness – but the DFLers will have a juggernaut at the top of the ticket, and the potential for energy they only achieve when Trump is in office. DFLers do have agitators, and activists that will complicate policymaking and can create confounding moments for more moderate members, but unity is easy for turnout against Trump. That enough could be a winning strategy.
Here we sit during a March blizzard; the Minnesota’s Mindset is hearty and something that a blizzard doesn’t phase. However, the Minnesota economy may be in tougher shape than the rest of the country like the winds of a storm on the prairie. Our future economy has more warning signs than any time in over 50 years.
DFLers have to avoid going adrift and getting lost in the flurry of fringe issues they loudest groups amplify to stay the course this year. Republicans need to lean into a new Minnesota nice that creates an economic and educational optimism that counters a social and “neighborly” optimism if they want to be successful.
In the meantime, Minnesota’s mindset will focused more locally, and if they look close, they will have big questions for both parties before November.
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State of Workforce – MN Chamber Workforce Summit
Minnesota’s economic imperative for growth: The importance of labor force and migration patterns
Sean O’Neil, Senior Director of Economic Development and Research
Strategies for employers: The importance of skills based hiring in building talent and retaining workforce
Meghan Hughes, Head of Workforce Development, Art and Heritage, Bank of America
The role of higher education in retaining and attracting students to Minnesota.
· Chancellor Scott Olson, Minnesota State
· President Rob Vischer, University of St. Thomas
· Dr. Rebecca Cunningham, President, University of Minnesota
Moderated by Doug Loon, President and CEO, Minnesota Chamber of Commerce
PODCAST PANELS: https://fluence-media.co/FluenceForumPodcast
State of Energy: Energy policy has rapidly become a top issue for voters and businesses alike, and Minnesota stands at the forefront of this transition.
· Policy Considerations
· Future of Energy
· Legislative Perspective and Reaction
PODCAST PANELS: https://fluence-media.co/FluenceForumPodcast
State of Health Care panels from last week are now available in podcast form.
· Policy Considerations
· State of Finance and Workforce
· Legislative Perspective and Reaction
PODCAST PANELS: https://fluence-media.co/FluenceForumPodcast
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IN MEMORIAM: morning take from now to the future is in memory of Melissa Hortman her accessibility, leadership and commitment to public service.
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