TEMPTING TUESDAY
The drive to Marshall will yield a MNSider for premier subscribers tomorrow, but last night the first campaign trail stop at a Kwik Trip of the 2026 cycle….and healthy snacks too. Meanwhile, Saturday’s GOP straw poll will be a first sign of strength with caucuses on February 3rd. Finance reports in mid-January will also show which candidates are real.
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A snowy afternoon commute may mean an early afternoon.
Minnesota businesses that rely on snow are seeing better sales now after a few rough winters. WCCO: https://fluence-media.co/4iN9aNh
Yale finds that only 3% of Democrats want to vote for Tim Walz in the 2028 presidential primary, but they judged him the 3rd most likely candidate to win the 2028 general election — only Gavin Newsom and Mark Kelly were named more “electable.” POLL: https://fluence-media.co/4rF0Umx
Happy National Pastry Day!
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This week’s Sunday Take covered civility, immigration, and Republican Ron Schutz’s campaign for attorney general. LISTEN: https://fluence-media.co/4iEm5B2
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The latest insight from Fluence Advisory on the loss of institutional knowledge from the Minnesota Legislature. READ:https://fluence-advisory.com/insights/
POLY POLITICS…
Polymarket is hosting bets on whether Gov. Tim Walz will be “charged by March 31.” So far, users place the odds at 4%. SEE: https://fluence-media.co/3MnNueB
This seems like a long-shot, however a Polymarket on whether Walz will be on the ballot next November would gain steam even among Democrats right now. The prediction markets have come to Minnesota – will they include more politics.
A good listen on if and how they impacted the NY City Mayor’s race and the success of Mayor-elect Zohran Mandami for those who follow or are curious about such things. LISTEN: https://fluence-media.co/4aCPMjW
EXURBS: The races to watch for the legislature will include districts in Greater Minnesota where Republicans have pick up opportunities. They will also include exurban / outer ring suburbs like district HD32B. Rep. Matt Norris was a surprise winner in 2022, he won in 2024 by a smaller margin and HD32B be a targeted race for both parties.
Norris’ district shows why Republicans need turnout in the suburbs to win statewide in 2026. Gov. Tim Walz won the district in 2022, 51-45 over Dr. Scott Jensen. Norris won with 51 percent of the vote defeating incumbent Rep. Donald Raleigh by only 413 votes. In 2024, Norris only won by 410 votes, but that outperformed the Harris Walz ticket by 80 votes. In the House race there were 17,799 votes in 2022 and in 2024 there were 23,650 votes. The turnout difference illustrates why Republicans will rely on a strong top of the ticket for 2026 if they hope to flip a seat like 32B. The 5,851 vote difference shows how close the battle for the legislature will be in 2026.
NORRIS: Rep. Matt Norris is launching is re-election with a “straight talking” video. WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/44OOsqx
DEBATE: Nine Republican candidates for governor gathered in Marshall last night to discuss issues and define themselves for voters at the first debate in the 2026 primary campaign. A few notable quotes:
Speaker Lisa Demuth said she’s the best candidate to face Gov. Tim Walz because she “beat Tim Walz at the negotiating table” in the House and “ended the [DFL] trifecta.”
2022 GOP nominee Scott Jensen said he supports gubernatorial term limits in Minnesota because “Tim Walz should be done, and that’s why we’re all here tonight.”
Attorney Chris Madel said his plans for affordability include freezing property taxes for retirees and fighting fraud, which he said state officials — including other Republicans — have not done enough on: “Enough talk, enough letters.”
Speaker Lisa Demuth, , Kendall Qualls and Jeff Johnson said they would abide by the party endorsement. Rep. Kristin Robbins says she will stay in the race as long as she thinks she’s the best candidate.
MORE: via Ryan Faircloth, VERBATIM: “Aside from passing mentions of tariffs and the national debt, most of the prominent candidates in the race used the opportunity to praise Trump. DEMUTH: “I am grateful that President Trump has put America first,” said Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, who commended the president for securing the southern border.
State Rep. Kristin Robbins, R-Maple Grove, added that she supports “almost all of President Trump’s policies” and is grateful his administration is looking into fraud in Minnesota’s welfare programs….Nearly every candidate clearly stated they are seeking Trump’s endorsement in the governor’s race. As businessman Kendall Qualls put it: “We are seeking it, and if he does, then game over, match.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/48shrTx
TMRW: Full analysis on the GOP race for Governor, including what to expect from Saturdays Straw Poll and more in the next MNSider for premium subscribers.
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AI AND MORE….
AI: via KARE 11, VERBATIM: “President Donald Trump announced he intends to sign an executive order this week that would block states from enforcing their own AI regulations, saying ‘there must be only one rulebook.’ … The move would shift regulatory authority entirely to the federal level and override state-level safeguards currently being developed across the country — including in Minnesota. … Congressman Tom Emmer [said] he supports minimal, but targeted federal oversight. … Senator Amy Klobuchar [said] she does not support pulling regulation rights from states.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/3KP34zp
CD8: via Minnesota Reformer, VERBATIM: “An influential Democratic-Farmer-Labor official in northern Minnesota has roiled the party by declining to resign as chair of Congressional District 8 despite being charged with criminal vehicular homicide. … On the evening of July 3, 2024…19-year-old Carter Haithcock was pronounced dead at the scene. The next morning, 8th District DFL Chair Cyndy Martin called 911 and said that she may have been involved in a collision near Nashwauk the night before. … Martin, who declined the Reformer’s request for comment, pleaded not guilty. … Minnesota Democrats have largely refrained from publicly commenting on Martin’s case and whether she should remain in party leadership. … DFL Chair Richard Carlbom [said] ‘I’m gonna allow due process to play out.’” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4pUIiNN
$1 BILLION: Via social media, KARE 11’s Lou Raguse disputed a Star Tribune report seen in yesterday’s morning take that claimed the total amount of confirmed stolen money in Minnesota’s fraud cases is $152 million. Raguse argued that the $1 billion figure favored by the Trump Administration is plausible because defendants from Feeding Our Future and related organizations have been convicted on charges of stealing over $300 million, per trial exhibits, and several active fraud investigations “could end up being even bigger than Feeding Our Future.” WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/4oDmqW3
MORE: FOX 9 has a breakdown of how much money Minnesota paid to entities accused of fraud and how the total amount of stolen funds could potentially add up to over $800 million in a worst case scenario. The exact fraud total is unknown as investigations are ongoing. READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/4aBuwuW
BALLOTS: via KSTP, VERBATIM: “One new law from 2023 is just now catching the attention of many Minnesota voters — permanent absentee voter ballots. Some viewers [said] they are getting mailers promoting the program from a group called ‘Integrity Minnesota.’ Not much is known about the group, but they share a post office box with the conservative Minnesota Jobs Coalition. … The idea behind the program is to allow Minnesotans who don’t plan to move anytime soon to automatically have an absentee ballot sent to them without having to reapply every election. … Secretary of State Steve Simon [said] he’s confident the program isn’t an easy target for voter fraud.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/4rKW7QD
CLEAN | RELIABLE | AFFORDABLE: via Xcel Energy, VERBATIM: “We’re powering the Upper Midwest with clean, reliable, and affordable nuclear energy. For more than 50 years, our Prairie Island Nuclear Plant, located near Red Wing, MN, has been a workhorse of reliable, carbon-free energy. With two pressurized water reactors producing about 1,100 megawatts, Prairie Island generates enough electricity to power 1.5 million homes across the Upper Midwest. Unlike sources that depend on weather, nuclear energy delivers 24/7 reliability — providing the power we need today while protecting the environment for tomorrow.” LEARN MORE: https://fluence-media.co/4oCHdK9 (SPONSORED: Xcel Energy)
IMMIGRATION
SENATE RACE: Via X, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan previewed her anti-ICE political messaging against Rep. Angie Craig ahead of their Senate primary. After Craig condemned reports of ICE agents allegedly detaining U.S. citizens, Flanagan attacked her immigration record. FLANAGAN: “Respectfully, Congresswoman, you voted with Republicans to strip due process from immigrants and to praise [Donald] Trump’s ICE this year. Now you’re upset? Votes have consequences. Minnesotans deserve better. … Trump chose the Laken Riley Act as the first bill of his administration for one reason: He wanted to legitimize his mass deportation agenda. Every vote in favor of this bill normalized the chaos we see now.” TWEETS: https://fluence-media.co/4psDjnL
ICE: via MPR News, VERBATIM: “Immigrant-rights groups across Minnesota say they’re being flooded with tips from residents reporting suspected ICE activity in their neighborhoods. Many describe the pace as unlike anything they’ve experienced. … With alerts outpacing their capacity to respond to each one, both MIRAC and COPAL say they’re focusing on long-term community support. That includes ‘Know Your Rights’ trainings, assistance for families whose income is suddenly disrupted after an arrest, and broader planning to help neighborhoods prepare if operations expand. Both groups say they expect enforcement activity — and community anxiety — to continue climbing in the weeks ahead.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4preqJb
MORE: Bring Me The News has a list of alleged ICE enforcement actions — with some confirmed by authorities — that were reported in the Twin Cities metro recently. LIST: https://fluence-media.co/4pUNxgr
DESPITE THE CHALLENGES OF RURAL HEALTH CARE, ESSENTIA IS RECOGNIZED FOR PROVIDING TOP CLINICAL CARE: According to the latest report from Minnesota Community Measurement, a statewide resource on health care quality, costs and equity, Essentia ranked as a high performer with 19 of 20 clinical quality metrics scoring above statewide averages. According to Dr. Maria Beaver, chief quality and patient safety officer at Essentia: “This is a testament to the amazing care provided by all our clinical care teams and all our colleagues who support them.” LEARN MORE: https://fluence-media.co/4dCxy1D (SPONSORED: Essentia Health)
NONPROFITS: via WCCO-TV, VERBATIM: “The federal and state crackdowns on fraud in Minnesota are creating collateral damage in programs aimed at helping people with disabilities. … Calli Brown is the CEO of Learnability, a nonprofit that provides home health aides to severely disabled individuals. [But] she will have to shut down if the federal government limits the in-home care she provides to six hours a day, down from 16. … Rep. Patti Anderson, the vice chair of the Minnesota House Fraud Committee, says the audits and investigations are necessary.” ANDERSON: “It’s very, very unfortunate, because these are dollars that should be going to people that need it. … But we have to get to the bottom of it.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/4oLtC2l
DC STUFF
FARMER AID: via AgWeek, VERBATIM: “A ‘band-aid’ is how many view the $11 billion in federal aid for row crop farmers and another $1 billion for other crop farmers [announced by] President Donald Trump on Monday. … [But] Minnesota Agriculture Commissioner Thom Petersen called the bailout, which is considered taxable income, ‘needed and welcome.’ … The additional billion dollars for specialty crops, which Petersen said came together last-minute thanks to hard work by legislators, was very welcome news for the state.” PETERSEN: “I think the administration listened. A lot of times, for Minnesota, we get overlooked.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4iL1iMl
MORE: via a Sen. Amy Klobuchar statement, KLOBUCHAR: “While we need to help farmers who have been hurt by the President’s across-the-board tariffs, ultimately farmers want trade — not aid. The easiest way to give our farmers more certainty would be for the President to end his tariff taxes. This assistance will clearly benefit some farmers now, but a one-time payment is not a long-term fix — only restoring these markets can do that.”
WATER: via Rep. Pete Stauber advisory, VERBATIM: “Congressman Pete Stauber (MN-08) and Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-08) introduced the American Water Stewardship Act, bipartisan legislation to reauthorize funding for several long-standing programs to maintain and improve water quality throughout the nation, including the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI). … In addition to the GLRI, the American Water Stewardship Act reauthorizes the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Long Island Sound and Columbia River Basin Restoration programs, the National Estuary Program, and the EPA’s BEACH Act program.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4iHx2BW
MONOXIDE: via Sen. Amy Klobuchar advisory, VERBATIM: “U.S. Senators Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and John Hoeven (R-ND), the leads of the Nicholas and Zachary Burt Memorial Carbon Monoxide Poisoning Prevention Act, are urging Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) Acting Chairman Peter Feldman to address the heightened risks of home carbon monoxide poisoning during the winter months and provide information on how the CPSC is working to combat this deadly risk, including the education and outreach being done to encourage people to install carbon monoxide detectors in their homes.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/44Y80c3
BUSINESS EXCELLENCE: Flint Hills Resources was just awarded the 2025 Large Business of the Year award from the Dakota County Regional Chamber of Commerce at their annual Business Excellence Awards celebration. The award celebrates the outstanding achievements of businesses that exemplify the thriving and growing spirit of Dakota County. The businesses honored make an impact and contribute to the continued success of our community. LEARN MORE: https://fluence-media.co/46lTpIs (SPONSORED: Flint Hills Resources)
SCHOOLS
RPS: via KSTP, VERBATIM: “Rochester Public Schools spent more than a quarter of a million dollars on a professional development program run by the superintendent’s wife, raising concerns about a possible conflict of interest. … Since 2022, [RPS] has paid for more than 50 employees to participate in the Minnesota Principals Academy – a professional development program at the University of Minnesota led by Dr. Katie Pekel. Her husband, Dr. Kent Pekel, has served as Rochester’s superintendent since 2021. … Pekel is adamant that he has been transparent about his wife’s role and insists there is no conflict, [saying] ‘She earns a salary that has nothing to do with the number of participants in the program.’ … Richard Painter, a former White House ethics lawyer, [said] ‘Decisions about a contract with your spouse’s employer [are] a fundamental conflict of interest.’” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/48ZIHJ1
ANOKA-HENN: via FOX 9, VERBATIM: “The Anoka-Hennepin School District [held] a board meeting Monday night amid ongoing contract negotiations with union educators [and] a Truth in Taxation Public Hearing about the proposed property tax levy for the upcoming year. The district, which employs more than 3,200 teachers, is looking to cut its operating budget for 2026 by an additional $8 million, including the elimination of nearly 120 full-time positions across grades K-12. … Educators, union leaders, and community members [held] a rally outside the school board meeting Monday to urge district leaders to settle a fair contract ahead of a potential strike vote later this month.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/4q0vxRW
ROCHESTER: via Rochester Post Bulletin, VERBATIM: “A one-time city contribution to the Salvation Army has been vetoed by Rochester Mayor Kim Norton. ‘The veto is based on several technical factors and not a reflection of the policies, practices or needs of the Salvation Army of Rochester,’ she said in a message attached to her 10th veto. … The veto follows a unanimous Rochester City Council vote on Dec. 1 to provide $20,000 from its remaining $644,000 in 2025 contingency funds to help the local agency cover increased security and rental assistance expenses. Norton said she believes the approval was handled inappropriately, citing conflicting language in the request that indicated action would be delayed for further study.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3Kwmg51
KANDIYOHI CTY: via West Central Tribune, VERBATIM: “Minnesota has a radar gap. Weather radar systems, which help track and predict weather patterns, are stationed in only a few places in and around Minnesota. While existing radar capability does cover a significant area, there are gaps in low-elevation radar in more than 82% of the state, according to a recent presentation by Kandiyohi County Emergency Management Director Ace Bonnema. In order to address this radar gap, the Kandiyohi County Board unanimously voted to approve an application for a grant of $1,250,000 for a two-year project to install low-elevation weather radar.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3XInBIR
NEXT…
TODAY: Gov. Tim Walz has no public events today.
THURSDAY: via MN House, VERBATIM: “From 6:00 – 7:00 pm, Representative Kristi Pursell (DFL-Northfield) and DFL members of the House Health Committee will host a listening session focused on rural healthcare affordability in Winona.”
FRIDAY: via Minneapolis Fed, VERBATIM: “Twice a year, regional economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis survey construction firms to gauge the sector’s performance and overall outlook. Join Regional Outreach Director Erick Garcia Luna to discuss these and other results from the fall survey of construction firms across the Ninth District.” The virtual event is at 9:00 a.m.
BDAYS: GOP Senate leader Mark Johnson, DJ Spinlove Paul Spangrud, MV Superfan Bill Conlin and belated to Klobuchar whisperer Justin Buoen
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IN MEMORIAM: morning take from now to the future is in memory of Melissa Hortman her accessibility, leadership and commitment to public service.
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