MERRY YEAR
First and foremost, thank you to our readers for incredible growth in 2025. We more nearly tripled our reads in 2025 with a chance of still getting to 6 million in total.
Amazing, and clear evidence that you’re seeking the insightful perspective we aim to provide every day. Share this with your family over the holidays – they can sign up too.
Have them visit www.TheDailyAgenda.com
We’ll return rested and ready to lead the way in coverage for 2026 on January 5th – it’s going to be a wild year in Minnesota politics, business and life.
Fluence plans for 2026 are significant, and we expect to be first to bring you the angles and insights of the race. You’ll see an exciting new tracker by mid-January, a debate schedule and the continuation of deep dive MNSider coverage.
Somebody running a lazy poll to test negatives against Michele Tafoya for Senate. HERE: https://fluence-media.co/497hXoK
Stay healthy, flu cases in Minnesota are spiking. WCCO: https://fluence-media.co/4aqHvzL
Fluence Advisory is hosting the next Fluence Forum: The State of Energy in January – email with topics or sponsorship inquiries. bloisolson@gmail.com
Maybe this will be the secret…the FDA approved its first GLP-1 weight loss pill. It’s expected to be cheaper than the injectable versions. AXIOS: https://fluence-media.co/496PgIy
This is the last morning take of 2025, but we’ll return Jan. 5. Enjoy the holidays!
Happy Festivus! Air the grievances…
Blois - tips: bloisolson@gmail.com
TONIGHT: Wild host Nashville, Wolves host the Knicks.
The latest MNSider Fluence Brief – What does President Trump saying “Mike Lindell deserves to be Governor.” mean to the GOP race. READ: https://fluence-media.co/48R7fnM
Health Care will remain a top issue into 2026, the State of Health Care Fluence Forum panels from last week are now available in podcast form. LISTEN: https://fluence-media.co/FluenceForumPodcast
Sunday Take featured Rep. Kelly Morrison discussing her first year in Congress and her priorities for 2026. LISTEN: https://fluence-media.co/49463vT
Want to manage your subscription to TheDailyAgenda.com ? HERE: https://fluence-media.co/managesubscription
The latest insight from Fluence Advisory on the loss of institutional knowledge from the Minnesota Legislature. READ:https://fluence-advisory.com/insights/
WHAT TO WATCH 2026
TAKE: The year 2025 was historical in Minnesota – and not for all good reasons. It was one that shocked our conscious, and we’re still reeling. The challenge is that the political environment hasn’t given the grace it claimed we all wanted when Melissa and Mark Hortman were killed and John and Yvette Hoffman were shot a combined 17 times.
We could go through the hold out of House DFLers from a quorum, or Gov. Walz national tour, but the reality is that we are more on edge politically than we were a year ago at this time. From fraud to feds the chorus is loud from each party, and yet our state is lagging in growth and the economy isn’t booming. Costs are not coming down, and neither is the political temperature.
The reality is that we are in a highly volatile political time, Minnesota 2026 will keep us on edge. The candidates will find ways to amplify the message to motivate their respective base, while the independents and the non-activists try to sort through the noise, or more like tune-out the parties. The lane for an independent candidates for Governor is widening by the week. Candidates will have until June 2nd to file for office and need 2,000 signatures to make the ballot.
Regardless, we’ll analyze, critique and try to keep the audience and the candidates honest about the dynamics and politics of the year.
The biggest ask is that you send your observations, the mood of Minnesota as we reflect it depends more than ever on the feedback from our audience.
Last year I wrote:
The House Republicans will have all the leverage on the next state budget. How they play their hand, and the Trump impact for a midterm will be major factors. The other factor is Gov. Tim Walz, and what his future looks like.
“If House leader Melissa Hortman chose to run statewide, she would have the best resume. Sen. Leader Erin Murphy has run before and would likely flirt with the idea again. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan may have the best energy among the most liberal constituencies.”
For Republicans, Rep. Pete Stauber, Sen. Leader Mark Johnson, Sen. Jordon Rasmusson, Sen. Zack Duckworth, Sen. Julia Coleman would all look to be possible names for statewide office in 2026. Keep an eye on Rep. Harry Niska as well, he thought about running for Attorney General.”
MAYORS: The two biggest cities will have major elections. It doesn’t look like there will .much change in St. Paul, but there’s still time. In Minneapolis, the council and Mayor races will determine the future of the city more than even 2021.
For 2026 Here’s What to Watch:
WALZ: Gov. Tim Walz remains the figure to watch most closely in 2026. The biggest question will be if he follows through with his run for a 3rd term. The DFL worry has turned to frustration, and maybe even dissent. The race is still his to lose, but private polls show that his net approval is at best even, and many polls show its negative. His team, has picked up their game on fraud, but there are still major fiscal questions and fatigue that he is too vulnerable to win. The biggest question which is a flashback to fall and the State Fair – is his heart in it?
GOPGOV: On Feb 3rd, Republicans will have a straw poll during caucuses for Governor. The cumulative results of Tier 1 vs Tier 2 candidates will send a message if the party activists are leaning toward candidate like Mike Lindell or a candidate like Speaker Lisa Demuth. Ultimately the Republican convention will decide, but the sense remains that Republicans as a whole want “the best candidate to win”. That means that purity tests, and fringe positions will have to be cast aside – which is something Minnesota Republicans haven’t been great at in recent years.
Deeper from MNSider: https://fluence-media.co/4pay8b5
DFLSEN: The race between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig will likely assure there is a competitive DFL primary. The candidates have started to sharpen elbows. Contentious primaries can divide parties, and this race has the potential to turn off a segment of DFL voters. Craig would be the stronger candidate on paper in the general election, but Flanagan has risen to the challenge and improved as a candidate.
Deeper from MNSider: https://fluence-media.co/44Fu0II
GOPSEN: As we await the entry of Michele Tafoya, fmr. Senator and GOP Chair David Hann’s entry adds to the potential for a primary battle for Republicans. Adam Schwarze, Tom Weiler and Royce White don’t bring the gravitas, or the national funding that will be required for a competitive race. Minnesotans have seen the Royce White movie before, and it’s unlikely to get better. If Tafoya does jump in the race, and wins a primary the general election debate will be worth watching.
MNHOUSE: The currently tied Minnesota House will not likely be 67-67 again when the 2027 legislature convenes. The House majority will be determined by 10-15 races maximum of the 134 total. The deciding races will be in the suburbs, exurbs and some rural population centers. New DFL leader Zach Stephenson is an operative at his core who will ensure that DFLers operation is as strong as it can be. Republicans will need to have disciplined, and very locally established candidates. Candidate quality, especially in open seats will be the main determining factor. DFLers have a slight edge, but Republicans could find a path to the majority if the top of the ticket is strong.
MNSENATE: Republicans have a slight edge to gain the majority in Minnesota Senate. This is a dynamic of rural and rural-adjacent seats that DFLers hold. DFLers seem to have been launching and recruiting candidates better, however Republicans have time. DFLers will be playing defense in more seats than the GOP. If the DFL top of the ticket is lagging the last few cycles – Republicans will take the majority. The majority will be decided in 5-7 seats.
CANDIDATES: Retiring Sen. Ann Rest said in her Sunday Take exit interview that there are fewer legislators with a “policymaker” mindset serving in the legislature. The rise of activists as legislators has afflicted both parties. It’s pushing out legislative experience, its creating a too tribal attitude, and its reducing bipartisan legislation. The candidates of 2026 for DFLers and GOPers should be mindful, build policy knowledge while running and the leaders of each caucus should encourage them to do so. The more activist minded the legislature becomes, the less chance for Minnesota finding a pathway to broad prosperity.
Deeper in the Fluence Advisory Memo on Institutional Knowledge: https://fluence-media.co/4sb3TmV
MOOD: The mood of Minnesota seems restless. One dynamic that is challenging to measure but could be showing signs of stronger pushback is that from local leaders toward St. Paul. One suburban superintendent cited 55 new mandates from the legislature on public education, the letter from 98 mayors yesterday and the call for Corrections Commissioner Schnell to resign add pressure to an already stressed Walz team. As others lean into how St. Paul isn’t helping but rather becoming a burden – the mood of Minnesota will shift. Recent statewide polling shows that the quality of life is high – but the optimism for the future isn’t.
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THE NOW
Today, Governor Tim Walz will discuss federal immigration enforcement.will discuss federal immigration enforcement at a 10:30 news conference with Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey; Saint Paul Mayor Melvin Carter; Bishop Richard D. Howell, Jr.; Unidos MN Executive Director Emilia Gonzalez Avalos; faith and community leaders.
Minnesota’s largest school district, where the board is as political and divided as anywhere may set a tone to start the new year with a teacher’s strike, via Fox 9, VERBATIM: “Anoka-Hennepin Education Minnesota leaders announced Monday it had filed an official intent to strike with the Minnesota Bureau of Mediation Services…The filing starts a 10-day cooling-off period required by law before a strike can take place. The teachers union says it has marked Jan. 8 as the first possible day of a strike if an agreement on a new contract is not reached.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/3MOh1OQ
Property taxes being a top-of-mind issue, Ramsey County is adding more top staff. Via KSTP, VERBATIM: “The creation of nine new positions and a more top-heavy government structure in Ramsey County amid a tax levy increase has raised resident concerns about government spending priorities…Next year’s county budget includes an 8.25% property tax hike, and more than half of that increase will cover salaries for the new roles and other employee wage increases…The newly created roles include a deputy county manager, five administrative division directors, an executive assistant, and two racial and health equity administrators.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/4qmej1t
Currently users at the betting site Polymarket predict that Mike Lindell has a 54% chance of winning the GOP gubernatorial primary next year. Speaker Lisa Demuth is at 20% odds and Kendall Qualls is at 13%. SEE: https://fluence-media.co/3YEmABZ
The Polymarket boost was undoubtedly a result of the “shoutout” for Lindell, but Republican insiders are suggesting that Lindell got slapped down for promoting it…: via Star Tribune, VERBATIM: “Mike Lindell is thanking President Donald Trump for shouting out his bid for governor of Minnesota, but the businessman said [yesterday] that he didn’t view it as an endorsement. … Lindell’s close relationship with Trump could give him a leg up over the other GOP candidates vying for the president’s backing. He regularly speaks with Trump’s former chief strategist, Steve Bannon, and told reporters earlier this month that the president’s former personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, is advising him. But Lindell has noted that Trump did not endorse him when he ran for chair of the Republican National Committee a few years ago.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/45nRmTn
Craig showing a new level of straight talk in the Minnesota Senate race via The Hill, VERBATIM: “Minnesota’s Democratic Senate primary is setting up a high-profile clash within the party amid a broader fight over its future. A number of well-known Democrats have already thrown their support in the race for the reliably blue seat, which is pitting the more centrist Rep. Angie Craig (Minn.) against progressive Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. … Flanagan framed the race as a choice between an ‘institutional, corporate Democrat vs. a progressive fighter’ advocating for working families. … Craig says the biggest difference between her and Flanagan is that, unlike the lieutenant governor, she ‘actually got shit done.’” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4j86Hx4
Republicans have acknowledged frustration with the time and work that they’ve put into building relationships in the Somali community, including GOP candidates for Governor Scott Jensen and Brad Kohler… via Sahan Journal, VERBATIM: “Drawn by Donald Trump’s economic promises and conservative stance on social issues, Badal Kariye was one of a growing number of Somali Americans who voted Republican in the presidential election. … [Now], Somali voters like Kariye are questioning not only their support for Trump but their place within the Republican Party. … Several Somali Republican voters attended [an event] that included Republican U.S. Senate candidate Royce White. … White was asked [if] he was willing to retract a previous statement calling for mass deportation of Somalis. He responded…‘I would rather die before I retract statements, and I think the deportation must begin.’” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4aovRp0
One troll from Republicans who don’t think Rep Tom Emmer is conservative enough – was amplifying that he once helped co-found the Somalian caucus in Congress – with now Attorney General Keith Ellison.
Take note “at least a year”…and a reminder that SWLRT was supposed to open in 2023….and Met Council is declining an interview? via KSTP, VERBATIM: “Light rail trains are at least a year away from beginning service on the Green Line Extension, but some of those who live closest to the new line are already feeling — and hearing — a significant impact. … New crossing bells are now sounding for every freight train that runs alongside the new light rail tracks near West 21st Street in Minneapolis. The slow-moving freight trains were previously allowed to pass through the area, dubbed a ‘quiet zone,’ without such measures. … The Met Council declined an [interview] but indicated noise issues will be revisited before light rail service begins in the area.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/4pWzdo4
CLEAN | RELIABLE | AFFORDABLE: via Xcel Energy, VERBATIM: “We’re powering the Upper Midwest with clean, reliable, and affordable nuclear energy. For more than 50 years, our Prairie Island Nuclear Plant, located near Red Wing, MN, has been a workhorse of reliable, carbon-free energy. With two pressurized water reactors producing about 1,100 megawatts, Prairie Island generates enough electricity to power 1.5 million homes across the Upper Midwest. Unlike sources that depend on weather, nuclear energy delivers 24/7 reliability — providing the power we need today while protecting the environment for tomorrow.” LEARN MORE: https://fluence-media.co/4oCHdK9 (SPONSORED: Xcel Energy)
THE FEED….
An example of something Gov. Walz hasn’t talked enough about in his recent news conferences when being questioned on fraud….via KSTP, VERBATIM: “Minnesota leaders shared more about the new committee tasked with cutting fraud out of state programs on Monday. Gov. Tim Walz created the Office of Inspector General Coordinating Council (OIGCC) through executive action. … Bureau of Criminal Apprehension Superintendent Drew Evans will chair the council, which will also include representatives from each state agency’s inspector general’s office and members of the BCA’s financial crimes unit, Minnesota Management and Budget’s accountability team, and the Minnesota Department of Administration grants management group. … The council will meet monthly.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/3MHMzWH
MORE: via Minnesota Reformer, VERBATIM: “DHS Inspector General James Clark was also on the call, and reporters asked him about the estimated $9 billion in fraud since 2018. … ‘Nothing I’ve seen indicates the $1 billion of fraud or the $9 billion of fraud figures that have been cited,’ Clark said. ‘I do have concerns that people will repeat that figure as fact.’ In July, the Reformer asked [Tim] Walz at a news conference whether he agreed with the federal prosecutor’s then-$1 billion fraud estimate, and the governor said ‘yes.’” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4prScWJ
RESPONSE: via Senate GOP Leader Mark Johnson statement, JOHNSON: “Governor [Tim] Walz continues to refuse meaningful accountability within his administration. There have been no firings and no consequences. … It’s long past time for Senate Democrats to finally hold Governor Walz and his administration accountable for the billions squandered in fraud. Their prolonged silence and deliberate inaction in the face of this crisis render them not just complicit, but enablers of the Walz administration’s catastrophic failures.”
INVESTIGATION: via FOX 9, VERBATIM: “The [U.S.] House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform is expanding its investigation into Medicaid fraud in Minnesota. … [Chair] Rep. James Comer said the U.S. House committee had sent letters to several officials with the Minnesota Department of Education and Minnesota Department of Human Services requesting transcribed interviews. Comer also requested a briefing from U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi’s office. Citing ‘whistleblower’ accusations, Comer is also seeking evidence that state officials attempted to ‘cover up’ the full extent of the fraud.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/4sc725U
DESPITE THE CHALLENGES OF RURAL HEALTH CARE, ESSENTIA IS RECOGNIZED FOR PROVIDING TOP CLINICAL CARE: According to the latest report from Minnesota Community Measurement, a statewide resource on health care quality, costs and equity, Essentia ranked as a high performer with 19 of 20 clinical quality metrics scoring above statewide averages. According to Dr. Maria Beaver, chief quality and patient safety officer at Essentia: “This is a testament to the amazing care provided by all our clinical care teams and all our colleagues who support them.” LEARN MORE: https://fluence-media.co/4dCxy1D (SPONSORED: Essentia Health)
TITLE IX: Education Sec. Linda McMahon announced on social media that Minnesota will be “recommended for enforcement action” on Jan. 1 if the state does not respond before then to federal Title IX concerns, saying the state’s policy allowing transgender students to play in school sports is “discrimination.” McMahon also shared a copy of the letter sent to state officials. LETTER: https://fluence-media.co/3MY6uk1
VANCE: via The Hill, VERBATIM: “Vice President JD Vance slammed Minnesota state Sen. Omar Fateh (D) on Sunday. … During his speech at Turning Point’s AmericaFest in Phoenix, [Vance] said Fateh, a democratic socialist who is of Somali descent, was Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-Minn.) ‘candidate for mayor of Mogadishu. Wait, I mean Minneapolis.’ … Fateh fired back, saying Vance ‘took time away from the couch to try out comedy.’ … The Minnesota lawmaker, who was born in Washington, D.C., added that he is ‘proud’ to represent Minneapolis in the state Senate.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4s65ryN
1ST RESPONDERS: via WCCO Radio, VERBATIM: “Families of [first responders] who battled cancer can now receive benefits from the Public Safety Officers Benefits Program. … Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) sponsored the bill that was just signed into law by President Donald Trump. … [The bill] expands access to federal support for the families of firefighters and other first responders who pass away or become permanently disabled from service-related cancers.” KLOBUCHAR: “We are doing a celebration of the lives of those we lost. … The bill takes effect immediately and it’s gonna allow for benefits for those families.” READ/LISTEN: https://fluence-media.co/4aql2Tm
VETERANS: via Rep. Kelly Morrison advisory, VERBATIM: “Representative Kelly Morrison (MN-03) introduced the VA SAFE Care Act, which would equip VA medical facilities with the appropriate tools to support and care for veterans that have experienced sexual assault. 1 in 3 female veterans, and 1 in 50 male veterans, have experienced sexual assault or sexual harassment.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4sbWELD
FTC: Instacart announced it will end its use of “dynamic pricing” algorithms a few days after Sen. Amy Klobuchar asked the FTC to investigate the company, as seen in yesterday’s morning take. KLOBUCHAR: “Grocery prices are already too high — Americans shouldn’t be forced to pay even more because companies use artificial intelligence to inflate prices.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4atVcOr
BUSINESS EXCELLENCE: Flint Hills Resources was just awarded the 2025 Large Business of the Year award from the Dakota County Regional Chamber of Commerce at their annual Business Excellence Awards celebration. The award celebrates the outstanding achievements of businesses that exemplify the thriving and growing spirit of Dakota County. The businesses honored make an impact and contribute to the continued success of our community. LEARN MORE: https://fluence-media.co/46lTpIs (SPONSORED: Flint Hills Resources)
LOCALS
W ST PAUL: via Star Tribune, VERBATIM: “West St. Paul amended its city charter earlier this month, increasing the number of people needed to successfully petition the City Council to ask the state for an audit from 100 voters to 5% of registered voters — or about 570 people. … West St. Paul leaders hope the higher threshold helps the city avoid incurring steep bills for audits-by-petition, an accountability mechanism that neighbors have rarely, if ever, used. Watchdogs, however, worry about the message the move might send when trust in government remains low.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3YHR85Q
ROCHESTER: via Rochester Post Bulletin, VERBATIM: “The Rochester City Council reversed Mayor Kim Norton’s vetoes related to a planned sports and recreation complex. The 5-2 decision Monday puts $52.2 million in planned construction contracts and material purchases back on track. … Norton [had] voiced concerns that the plan does not reflect what many Rochester residents expected in 2023, when a majority of voters approved collecting $65 million in sales tax revenue for the project. … Increasing costs [are] expanding the budget beyond $65 million, which led staff to propose a phased approach.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4p7PEwE
AHEAD
DEC 24-JAN 4: Fluence Media is on holiday break.
JAN 2: Via City of St. Paul, the “public ceremonial inauguration” of Kaohly Her as the next St. Paul Mayor will be held Friday, Jan. 2 at 1:00 p.m.
BDAYS: today’s BDAYS and those who complain that we don’t publish on their day… GL’s Mathew Michalski, Canadian advocate Joel Wessman, Vikings sufferer Michael Brodkorb, pa guy Ryan Kelly, Alliance for a Better MN’s Marissa Luna, GOP insider Dan Johnson, MN House’s Amanda Rudolph…now until the end of the year…Take Action’s Irene Folstrom, movie guy Tim Lammers, GOP CD1 leader Aaron Faris, insurance guy Mike Nelson, WCCO Radio’s Susie Jones, financial advisor Nicole Middendorf, MN State leader Dawn Erlandson, lobbyist Dan Dwight, DFL organizer Alyse Maye Quade, lobbyist Kevin Morris, St. Paul leader Jane Prince, KFAN’s Brandon Mileski, attorney Kelly Eull, Scott County Commissioner Barb Brekke, realtor Zach Strouts, radio guy Al Travis and finally MBP’s Abby Loesch,
SPEAKER: If you’re looking for a speaker about the “Signal vs. Noise” dynamic of today’s politics and the 2026 election. EMAIL: BloisOlson@gmail.com.
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IN MEMORIAM: morning take from now to the future is in memory of Melissa Hortman her accessibility, leadership and commitment to public service.
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