Vikings lose. Wild win. Timberwolves win.
Gopher football host Maryland for homecoming tomorrow.
Colgate at RIT this weekend.
Yesterday’s SportsTake is a MUST read. HERE: https://fluence-media.co/3C1Wykb
76% of U.S. adults favor the concept of early voting. Two other election law policies are supported by even more Americans -- requiring photo identification to vote (84%) and providing proof of citizenship when registering to vote for the first time (83%). GALLUP: https://fluence-media.co/40kPJEA
Joe Biden will formally apologize today for the nation's Indian boarding school system, which included at least 16 schools in Minnesota. Biden is the first president to do so. AP: https://fluence-media.co/3Yy7qit
Sunday Take at 9AM on WCCO Radio, a US Senate Debate with Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Royce White. STREAM: https://fluence-media.co/WCCOLive
It’s National Greasy Foods Day!
Blois
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MNLEG: Legislative races close and shift late in the campaign. This year is no different, and the race to control the Minnesota House is a toss-up. DFLers are playing defense in 8 seats, Republicans are playing defense in 5 seats. Republicans need a net 3 wins to tie and 4 to control the House.
Key factors to watch in these races that will be decided by only 100-200 votes are as follows:
College vs. Non-college voters
White vs. non-white voters
October surprises or news on state issues like spending or fraud
Based on recent voting trends, specifically when fmr. President Trump is on the ballot Republicans have a boost of votes in the exurbs and rural districts. DFLers have won the suburbs three cycles in a row, something that Republicans have had an edge on historically. The sense of the suburbs, or age of the community/housing stock may also play a role in the more granular things to watch.
For instance, in the newer southwest suburbs, where there is newer housing stock and a more college-educated population, DFLers. Have made gains. However, in older more blue collar suburbs like the Southeast suburbs, Republicans have made gains.
PURPLECIRCLE: As we consider the top of the ticked trend, there is likely a ring or oval that will determine if Republicans control the house. A key question is where that line of purple runs, and if there is any significant split-ticket trends between Harris-Walz and the legislative vote. The margin of any Harris-Walz victory will also have an impact. When the Presidential Democrat wins by more than four points, DFLers control the House. When it is less than four points, Republicans control the House.
The current poll average in Minnesota has Harris leading by 4.7 percent.
Here are the updated morning take House rankings, and the movement.
We have moved 2 DFL seats to toss-up from likely DFL they are 14B, 18A.
Morning Take Top 15 Minnesota House Rankings
(purple) 3B – Zelenzikar (R) – Hermantown
(red) 7B – Open Seat (D) – Eveleth / Virginia
(red) 11A – Dotseth (R) – Kettle River
(red) 14A – Perryman (R) – St. Cloud
(purple) 14B – Wolgamott (D) – St. Cloud
(purple) 18A – Brand (D) – St. Peter
(purple) 26A – Open (D) – Winona
(purple) 32B – Norris (D) - Blaine
(blue) 35A – Stephenson (D) – Coon Rapids
(purple) 35B – Open Seat (D) – Coon Rapids
(purple) 36A – Engen (R) – Lino Lakes
(red) 41A – Open (R) – Lake Elmo
(purple) 48B – Rehm (D) - Chanhassen
(purple) 54A – Tabke (D) - Shakopee
(purple) 58A – Pursell (D) – Northfield
D seats lean R – 1
R seats lean D – 0
R toss-ups - 2
D toss-ups - 8
D seats lean D - 1
R seats lean R – 3
IRON RANGE: The Star Tribune has an in-depth report on the political dynamics of the Iron Range. VERBATIM: “The blue-collar region supported pro-labor Democrats for decades until environmental concerns about mining and the urban-rural cultural divide pushed it to the right. Minnesota Republicans are hopeful the region’s rightward shift will help them win every state House seat on the Range this year. … The last House Democratic holdout on the Range is District 7B. … Democrats have narrowly held onto the district…but the unexpected retirement of incumbent DFL Rep. Dave Lislegard earlier this year left the House seat wide open. Republican Cal Warwas [faces] Democrat Lorrie Janatopoulos. … Democrats believe they have another opportunity to win an Iron Range seat in neighboring District 3A. … First-term state Rep. Roger Skraba, R-Ely, is facing Democrat Harley Droba, the mayor of International Falls. Skraba was elected in 2022 by a razor-thin margin of 15 votes.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/40pjjbI
BALLOTS: via Office of the Secretary of State, VERBATIM: “In the first five weeks of voting, local election officials have distributed 878,931 absentee and mail ballots in Minnesota. County, city, and township election officials have accepted 565,909 ballots. The Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State will update absentee voting statistics again on October 31 and November 4. Nearly 300,000 ballots have not yet been returned.” Via a Sec. Steve Simon statement, SIMON: “More than half a million Minnesotans have already made their voices heard in this election. … If you haven’t already voted, now is the time to make your plan to vote.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/48pqpiK
SECURITY: via KSTP, VERBATIM: “There’s new criticism of Minnesota’s Secretary of State [after] ballots were left unattended outside Edina City Hall last week. KIFFMEYER: ‘All ballots in every corner of the state, from Lake of the Woods down to Worthington — all of these ballots should be accorded that same degree of security and protection,’ former Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer said at a news conference. … Kiffmeyer joined other Republicans in raising questions about why only one person transported the ballots instead of having other independent observers alongside them. Secretary of State Steve Simon says state election law only requires two observers from different political parties on Election Day, not for the entire early voting period. Kiffmeyer on Thursday called on Simon to apply the same standard to all ballots cast in Minnesota.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/4hlilDG
MORE: Former Minnesota Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer was joined at Thursday’s press conference by MN GOP Chair David Hann, Sen. Mark Koran, and Rep. Paul Torkelson. HANN: “It's important that Simon does a better job of ensuring that the [voting] process is conducted according to law. These are not partisan interests. Republicans and Democrats alike believe the election process should be conducted according to law.”
BLACK VOTE: FOX 9 interviewed several Black voters in Minnesota to ask who they are supporting in the presidential election and why. VERBATIM: “Keeth Campbell, a black male voter, [is] planning on voting for Kamala Harris for this election. He says it’s because he wants to see the first female president. [But] other Black men he talks to are all over the map, in part because of their bottom line. ‘When [Donald] Trump was in office, personally for me, that was like the last time I had a job. I’ve been just working for myself ever since I got out of jail,’ said Robert Webb, a Black male voter. U of M professor of politics Larry Jacobs says the Democratic Party will get most of the Black male vote. However, inflation could influence voters.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/40hPSby
CD2: via WCCO Radio, VERBATIM: “Three-term incumbent Democrat Angie Craig is battling with Republican Joe Teirab in a fight that’s been waged with thousands of dollars spent on TV and radio ads along with face-to-face debates that have tackled everything from the economy to abortion rights. Teirab has touted his experience as a federal prosecutor and marine veteran in the race and says people in the district are ready for a new face. … Craig, meanwhile, leans heavily into her bipartisan record that she says fits the purple and politically diverse district, if not necessarily the entire base of her party.” READ/LISTEN: https://fluence-media.co/3UpcgvX
MORE WALZ: Sign up for Walz Watch, our new tip sheet, and get all the latest national news about the governor’s VP campaign HERE: https://fluence-media.co/walzwatch
HOA: via The Reformer, VERBATIM: “A property insurance trade group is asking Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison to investigate an Otsego homeowners association, their property manager and a construction company subsidiary after allegations made by residents in a recent Reformer story….Homeowners at Villas at Pheasant Ridge were charged more than $18,000 each to replace their roofs, resulting in at least one foreclosure. In Minnesota, HOAs can issue liens against residents’ homes for failure to pay dues or special assessments like the roof replacement…The Pheasant Ridge homeowners are especially alarmed that the HOA board steered the roofing work to a contractor that’s a subsidiary of their property manager…The Reformer story, writes Aaron Cocking, CEO of the Insurance Federation of Minnesota, “contains serious allegations that we feel need additional review and scrutiny.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3C0DxPa (DISCLOSURE: the Insurance Federation of Minnesota is a client of Fluence Advisory)
UMN: via KARE 11, VERBATIM: “One person arrested in Monday's pro-Palestinian protest at the University of Minnesota is now charged with assault for reportedly spitting on a responding police officer. Court documents filed Thursday document the allegations against a 23-year-old from Minneapolis, which amount to fourth-degree assault. … When asked for their name, the defendant reportedly became upset and called the officers Nazis. Witnesses say the defendant then turned to face one of the police officers and spit bodily fluid at him, landing on his uniform. … Minnesota statutes on fourth-degree assault call for a maximum sentence of three years in prison and a $6,000 fine.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/48hQakR
MORE: via MPR News, VERBATIM: “A Minnesota Daily reporter was detained while covering a protest on the University of Minnesota campus earlier this week. Second-year student and reporter Tyler Church was covering Monday afternoon’s occupation of Morrill Hall by pro-Palestinian protesters when he was apprehended and placed in flex cuffs by university police. Church was wearing a vest with the word ‘PRESS’ in large, white letters. … Church, two other Daily reporters and a Minnesota Star Tribune reporter were made to wait in the Morrill Hall basement for several hours, Church said, before law enforcement let them exit.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4eWes6w
CELL PHONES: via KARE 11, VERBATIM: “Before the end of the 2021-22 school year, Principal Amy Stenson Kujawski decided to take a stand on a growing problem at St. Anthony Middle School. … She said students were on their phones in the hallway, in the lunchroom and in the classroom, [so] Kujawski banned cell phones for the final three weeks of the school year. … [They were] ahead of the curve. A state law passed last year mandates that all school districts in Minnesota must have a cell phone policy established by March 15, 2025. … As school districts across the state weigh what to do with cell phone policies, thinking about issues such as mental health and distractions, there is another issue to consider – security, according to students like Deandre Jones. ‘What happens if it was an emergency or something and I don’t have my phone on me and couldn’t call [anybody],’ Deandre said.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/3NFMC2w
AMTRAK: via Star Tribune, VERBATIM: “Amtrak’s Borealis line running between St. Paul’s Union Depot and downtown Chicago hit a milestone this week with 100,000 riders, a feat achieved in just 22 weeks since service began in May. Original projections from Amtrak and the Minnesota Department of Transportation showed between 125,000 and 135,000 passengers would ride the train annually. Other projections showed as many as 232,000 riders annually.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3UpmmNr
CHARTERS: via KARE 11, VERBATIM: “STEP Academy is an embattled St. Paul charter school that's still fighting to stay open. … Two board members resigned at its school board meeting on Monday, and it was confirmed Wednesday that the superintendent has [resigned] as well. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Department of Education says 10 other charter schools have already closed or merged this year. The number doesn't surprise charter school supporter turned critic University of Minnesota law professor Myron Orfield. … ‘This happens all the time," said Orfield. State data also shows 124 charter schools have closed since the first one opened 32 years ago. … [Orfield] blames little accountability and big promises to often immigrant families that make up much of the school populations.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/48kjcjK
LISTENING, LEARNING AND REDEFINING INDIGENOUS PARTNERSHIPS: “We want to build partnerships with Indigenous Nations. We continue to listen to and learn from Indigenous leaders and communities, and that’s informing how we engage communities in B.C. and across North America,” said CEO Greg Ebel of Enbridge’s approach to be the “first-choice partner” for Indigenous Nations interested in pursuing energy infrastructure opportunities. READ MORE: https://fluence-media.co/3Yht20R (SPONSORED: Enbridge)
MPLS: via KSTP, VERBATIM: “Members of the Minneapolis Police Department and the Park Board [gave] their 2025 budget presentations to city council members on Thursday. The Park Board has already said Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey’s proposal, which includes a property tax increase of 8%, falls short of expectations. Currently, the budget plan is about $1.88 billion. … MPD Chief Brian O’Hara told the committee that homicides and robberies are up, while the department is facing staffing challenges. … Half a million dollars would be put aside for recruitment campaigns, and Frey said he is also asking for $1.2 million for new traffic cameras. Meanwhile, the Parks Department has $88 million included in Frey’s proposal, which is $2 million less than requested by the Park Board.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/3ULewy3
3RD PRECINCT: via MinnPost, VERBATIM: “The city of Minneapolis doesn’t own or use razor wire, yet it still wraps around the former Third Precinct police station. ‘Most public-facing agencies don’t use razor wire,’ City Operations Officer Margaret Anderson Kelliher said. … The razor wire securing the badly damaged Third Precinct building is a remnant left by the National Guard, which came into the city following the civil unrest that broke out after the murder of George Floyd. … Remediation efforts at the former Third Precinct building in south Minneapolis began this spring. So why hasn’t the exterior changed over the last several months? When city staff set out to clean up the site, making the interior of the building safe was their first priority, Anderson Kelliher said. … The City Council voted 8-3 to [remove it]…and the goal of the next two weeks is to make it look more like a construction site.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4hiKtHk
PARK: The Minneapolis Park and Recreation Board held a ribbon cutting ceremony yesterday for the redesign of Bryn Mawr Meadows Park, attended by Mayor Jacob Frey and other officials. Via a press release, VERBATIM: “The park redesign transformed 9.5 acres of former lawn and ballfields to native-plant greenway and meadow areas, with two stormwater ponds to improve Bassett Creek water quality. Additional features include 2 new premier ball fields; winter ice rinks in the meadow; 6 acres of informal fields with pollinator-friendly turf; new playground, picnic area and mountain-bike skills course; more than 100 new trees; over 1.5 miles of new connecting trails.”
VENDORS: via Star Tribune, VERBATIM: “Minneapolis City Council Member Jason Chavez [proposed] that the city look at creating a license for these small-scale street vendors as the number of migrants selling food on streets and sidewalks and in parks has multiplied since the COVID-19 pandemic. The council voted last week to study licensing the vendors, and possibly expand the number of locations they’re allowed to operate. The report, due in January, will be used to craft an ordinance, with a goal of passage by spring, Chavez said. Jovita Morales, director of the Minnesota Immigrant Movement, said police are being called on vendors, and alleged that city inspectors have intimated that vendors could be deported if they wind up in jail. City officials disputed that.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3BXgftj
PERMITTING REFORM FOR RESPONSIBLE INDUSTRIES: Jobs for Minnesotans is committed to advancing responsible industrial projects through a predictable, timely and transparent permitting process. Broad permitting reform for all responsible industries is essential to strengthening Minnesota’s communities and advancing our state’s clean energy future. (SPONSORED: Jobs for Minnesotans)
UTILITIES: via Duluth News Tribune, VERBATIM: “Regulators approved a lower rate hike for Minnesota Power customers on Thursday. The Duluth-based company said in a news release that residential customers' electricity rates will increase by 4.9% — about $5 for average customers — compared to 2023 rates, while industrial and large commercial customers will see a 4.4% rate increase. However, it's lower than the company's original rate increase request of 12% made almost a year ago, and it's lower than the temporary 8.6% rate increase that's been in effect since January.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4hi6dDm
EMS: via Office of the Governor, VERBATIM: “Governor Tim Walz today announced the appointment of Dylan Ferguson to serve as the inaugural director of the Office of Emergency Medical Services. Ferguson will start in this new role on January 1, 2025. … Ferguson has served as the executive director of the Minnesota Emergency Medical Services Regulatory Board since February 2022, where he led multiple administrative and operational improvements. … The Office of Emergency Medical Services is a new office developed to regulate and support the emergency medical services industry.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3NL4OaF
WATER: via MinnPost, VERBATIM: “A Minnesota conservation group wants to focus on land protection and restoration near the St. Louis River as a part of a multi-state initiative known as the Greater Lakes Promise, an effort to improve water quality in the Great Lakes. … The five-year partnership is being funded by the Great Lakes Protection Fund. Individual partner organizations will be given money every year to use in whatever way they need, whether it be getting rid of invasive species, maintaining lands or hiring staff.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3AepapW
ECONOMICDEVELOPMENT: From Grand Rapids, a conversation about opportunities and challenges to economic growth in Greater Minnesota with Tuleah Palmer, CEO of the Blandin Foundation, Roy Smith of the IRRRB and Steve Loney from Kiesler Wellness Center. From workforce to energy costs, a thoughtful conversation on how leaders are working together to push the region’s economy forward. Mainstreet Minnesota is presented by Compeer Financial. LISTEN: https://fluence-media.co/MainstreetMN2
WINONA: via Winona Daily News, VERBATIM: “A candidate for the Winona's 3rd Ward city council seat shared her thoughts Tuesday evening about balancing the city's budget, transportation, cannabis and more during a League of Women Voters forum at City Hall. Both candidates on the ballot were invited and Samantha Zierden Shortridge participated, but her opponent on the November ballot, Jon Krofchalk, did not. The 3rd Ward seat that Zierden Shortridge and Krofchalk are vying for is now held by Pamela Eyden.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3BZbeAw
DULUTH: via Duluth News Tribune, VERBATIM: “The Damiano Center once again is positioning itself to serve community members in a time of need, and St. Louis County commissioners unanimously agreed to provide substantial financial support for its latest venture, to the tune of $1.41 million Tuesday. The city’s only homeless shelter [is] preparing to double its capacity. However, the project stands to force the closure of the facility for as long as 18 months, potentially leaving already-displaced people with nowhere else to turn. That would be an unacceptable outcome, in the eyes of John Cole, Chum’s executive director. … If the shelter expansion fails to commence in six to eight months, County Commissioner Patrick Boyle explained that about $8 million in state funds and $2 million in federal support could be placed at risk. He said that the tight timeline heightens the danger of people being forced out onto the streets for the interim.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3NEYNfK
SARTELL: via MPR News, VERBATIM: “Four residents of a central Minnesota mobile home park are suing its current and former owners alleging fraudulent practices and health violations, including a faulty sewer system that caused sewage to back up into their homes. The four are longtime residents of the Sartell Mobile Home Park north of St. Cloud. … The suit also claims the park’s owners installed inaccurate water meters that wildly overcalculated the amount of water residents used, and deceived them into signing new leases with stricter terms.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4hcAKTb
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT: Flint Hills Resources makes fuels and other products people need and use every day — products that help keep Minnesota moving. The company does this while prioritizing safety and environmental stewardship and contributing meaningfully to the community. That’s Stewardship with a Purpose. LEARN MORE: https://fluence-media.co/3ALNT4U (SPONSORED: Flint Hills Resources)
From yesterday’s Fluence newsletters:
FALCON HGTS: via Star Tribune, VERBATIM: “Years after their contentious split, St. Anthony police officers will once again patrol the city of Falcon Heights. The Falcon Heights City Council voted unanimously Wednesday night to contract with the St. Anthony Police Department for the first time since 2017 when their partnership ended following the highly publicized killing of Philando Castile by a St. Anthony police officer. St. Anthony had policed the neighboring suburb for more than 20 years until the two cities severed their agreement after Castile was killed during a 2016 traffic stop in Falcon Heights.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/40dZqVf
LONELINESS: via Axios Twin Cities, VERBATIM: “Close to 40% of Minnesotans are lonely, according to a recent vibe check from the U.S. Census Bureau. Feelings of isolation and loneliness are a real public health threat — so much so that Surgeon General Vivek Murthy last year issued an advisory on the matter. Nearly half of Americans reported feeling lonely at least sometimes, the Census survey conducted this summer found.” READ/MAP: https://fluence-media.co/4hhO1to
POLL: The latest HarrisX poll sponsored by Forbes found that Gov. Tim Walz is a less polarizing figure than his Republican counterpart Sen. JD Vance, but their favorability levels are relatively similar. Walz has a net favorability of -3% (36% approve, 39% disapprove), while Vance has a net favorability of -6% (37% approve, 43% disapprove). POLL: https://fluence-media.co/3AcNSXy
MORE TAKES: Every day, we’re sharing significant political, business and other news in additional newsletters. If you love morning take, sign up for the other Fluence tip sheets HERE: fluence-newsletters.com
TODAY: Via the Harris-Walz Campaign, Gov. Tim Walz will attend private campaign events in Philadelphia, PA and Allentown, PA before hosting a rally in Scranton, PA.
TODAY: via Office of the Sec. of State, VERBATIM: “On Friday, October 25, Secretary of State Steve Simon will meet with leaders in youth civic engagement in the African-American Community in St. Paul.”
TODAY: The DFL District 07 is sponsoring a ceremony ‘Remembering Paul Wellstone’ to be held on Friday, Oct 25 at 10:00 a.m. at the U.S. Senator Paul Wellstone Memorial, in rural Eveleth. Speakers will include former Wellstone staff, elected officials, and friends.
TODAY: via a Grassroots Mpls advisory, VERBATIM: “On Friday, community leaders will gather for a ribbon-cutting ceremony to celebrate the Unity Building project on Lake Street. The Unity Building is a 21,100 sq. ft., four-story, mixed-use commercial project [that] will serve as a multi-generational hub, honoring the cultural crossroads of Latine and African communities on Lake Street.” The event is at 11:30 a.m.
TOMORROW: Via the Harris-Walz Campaign, Gov. Tim Walz will visit Navajo Nation leaders in Window Rock, AZ and host a campaign rally in Phoenix, AZ. According to the campaign, this is the first visit to the Navajo Nation by any candidate on either presidential ticket this cycle.
SUNDAY: Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Republican challenger Royce White will debate on WCCO Radio, moderated by Blois Olson.
SUNDAY: Via the Harris-Walz Campaign, Gov. Tim Walz will campaign in Las Vegas, NV.
BDAYS: campaign operative Latisha Townsend, fashion leader Grant Whitaker, policy guy Ken Iosso. SAT: lobbyist Courtney Jasper, education leader Dennis Carlson, entrepreneur John Alexander, policy leader Hue Nguyen SUN: DFL operative Heidi Kraus Kaplan, marketer Lauren Henry
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