Wild lose.
Dow futures surging this morning.
Google search trends show Minnesota ranked 34th among U.S. states for interest in “election day.” A map of the top searched issues by county finds Minnesotans were most concerned about crime, unemployment and Social Security. MAP: https://fluence-media.co/3NSLx7z
A JournoResearch analysis of Google search trends finds that “move to Canada” searches spiked yesterday.
APM Research Lab finds that 60% of U.S. adults participated in political activity of some kind during the 2024 cycle. Kamala Harris supporters were slightly more active than Donald Trump supporters. STUDY: https://fluence-media.co/4hzp3pG
Here’s when we can expect certain swing states to finish counting ballots. FOX: https://fluence-media.co/4hyBzWq
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TIE: Republicans were campaigning on divided government, and now we have a tie in the Minnesota House. Republicans picked up 3 seats in Greater Minnesota, and DFLers barely held on to seats in more ex-urban areas. There will be two recounts, one in St. Cloud (Wolgamott-Ek) with 28 votes and another in Shakopee (Tabke-Paul) with 13 votes.
House GOP Leader Lisa Demuth and other House GOP members will hold a news conference at 11AM.
Speaker Melissa Hortman acknowledged that the tie is a possibility, and has likely planned out this scenario with a few options. Her style of respectful relationship
MN HOUSE:
GOP Pick-ups
7B: Republican Cal Warwas leads Lorrie Janatopoulos, 55% to 45%
26A: Republican Aaron Repinski beats DFLer Sarah Kruger, 53% to 46%
18A: Erica Schwartz beats Rep. Jeff Brand, 52% to 48%
Recounts
14B: Rep. Dan Wolgamott leads Sue Ek, 49.9% to 49.8%
54A: Rep. Brad Tabke leads Aaron Paul 50% to 49.9%
GOP Holds:
3B: Rep. Natalie Zeleznikar leads Mark Munger, 51% to 49%
14A: Rep. Bernie Perryman beats Abdi Daisane, 56% to 43%
36A: Rep. Elliott Engen beats Janelle Calhoun
41A: Republican Wayne Johnson, beats DFLer Lucia Wroblewski
41B: Republican Tom Dippel leads DFLer Jen Fox, 53% to 47%
DFL Holds
32B: Rep. Matt Norris fends off Alex Mo
35A: Rep. Zack Stephenson beats Josh Jungling
35B: DFLer Kari Rehrauer beats Republican Steve Pape
48B: Rep. Lucy Rehm leads Caleb Steffenhagen
For full results in all 134 House races, check the Secretary of State’s website HERE: https://fluence-media.co/3UIgvmv
FLASHBACK: via Session Daily an account of the last time the Minnesota House was tied. VERBATIM: “In sports, ties are unsatisfying, and can be settled by equally unsatisfying means, such as shootouts in hockey and soccer, or overtime in football and other sports. But what about when a legislative body has an equal number of members from each party?...Then it can be more than simply unsatisfying, it can be paralyzing. In theory, a legislature can’t function. Who becomes speaker or majority leader when there’s no majority?..That was the situation when the House convened in January 1979 with 67 DFL members and 67 Independent-Republicans (as today’s Republicans were then called)…Here is the story of the high-stakes political power plays preceding that session, and a power-sharing agreement that gave one party the all-powerful position of Speaker of the House.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4fhMzpM
Early data which we will update in lunch take and finalize for tomorrow’s morning take shows that turnout in strong DFL counties was lower than 2020 and higher in strong GOP counties.
Trends in key regions favored Trump as well.
Trump increased his vote advantage in Greater Minnesota.
The exurbs overperformed 2016 and 2020 for Republicans.
Hennepin and Ramsey County DFL votes were fewer than 2020.
The suburbs were won by the DFL for the 4th cycle in a row, but by fewer than in 2020 or 2022.
KLOBUCHAR: Sen. Amy Klobuchar overperformed VP Harris by 5 percent, but she underperformed her 2018 (non-presidential year).
TRUMP: Donald Trump overperformed his 2020 votes in nearly every count, but didn’t match his 2016 numbers.
TAKE: Gov. Tim Walz will return to Minnesota with a split legislature, after a two-year progressive trifecta. America wakes up to President-elect Donald Trump. The tone and tenor from the left and the right will tell be loud, proud and disruptive. Those in the middle will likely cover their eys and ears to the polarizing cable television chatter. Afterall, cable television appearances appeal to those who obsess about the news which is fewer and fewer Americans. Just like most institutions, including media, trust is at an all time low. It’s up to leaders on both sides to try to rebuild it.
The numbers show that VP Kamala Harris underperformed President Joe Biden in 2020 in Minnesota and across the “Blue Wall. However, as is always the case, there is not just one factor. Other leading factors are young male voters, and Hispanics nationally that Trump attracted. In Minnesota, a tie in the House and a one-seat majority suggest we are less blue than statewide election results since 2006 would suggest. That’s where Gov. Walz must eat some crow and acknowledge that he is the Governor for all of Minnesota.
Walz hasn’t done that for a few years, and after the rush of a national rock tour-like the past 92 days when he returns to Minnesota facing his greatest political test yet – and it will be the thing that determine his own political future.
RESULTS:
PRESIDENTIAL:
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz lead Donald Trump and JD Vance, 51% to 47%
US SENATE:
Sen. Amy Klobuchar beats Royce White, 56% to 41%
US HOUSE: No change (4 DFL, 4 GOP).
CD1: Rep. Brad Finstad beats Rachel Bohman, 62% to 38%
CD2: Rep. Angie Craig beats Joe Teirab, 55% to 42%
CD3: DFLer Kelly Morrison beats Republican Tad Jude, 59% to 41%
CD4: Rep. Betty McCollum likely beats May Lor Xiong, 0 precincts reporting
CD5: Rep. Ilhan Omar beats Dalia Al-Aqidi, 76% to 23%
CD6: Rep. Tom Emmer beats Jeanne Hendricks, 66% to 34%
CD7: Rep. Michelle Fischbach beats AJ Peters, 70% to 30%
CD8: Rep. Pete Stauber beats Jen Schultz, 62% to 38%
MN SENATE: DFL hold.
DFLer Ann Johnson Stewart beats Republican Kathleen Fowke, 52% to 47%
PARTIES: via Star Tribune live updates, VERBATIM: “At the DFL election night party at the InterContinental St. Paul Riverfront, Jeff Edelstein of Bloomington had a phrase that aptly described both his mood and the mood of the party as presidential election results were streaming in: ‘nauseously optimistic.’ … Sen. Tina Smith [said] ‘The votes are still being counted. We’re all going to have to be patient.’ … As Democratic officeholders like St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan tried to stay positive, the crowd seemed increasingly nervous. … On the second floor of the Radisson Blu at the Mall of America, there is a growing party mood as fans of former President Donald Trump…crowd around the four video screens as more good news pours in for [GOP] control of the Senate. … DFL state Sen. Ron Latz, the chair of the Judiciary and Public Safety Committee, said Tuesday night at the DFL election night party in St. Paul that his stomach was in knots. … After the Associated Press called the 2nd Congressional District for DFL U.S. Rep. Angie Craig, she told the jubilant remaining supporters about closer elections in years past — like one that wasn't called until 3 a.m. ‘It’s not even midnight,’ she said. ‘I’m in shock, actually, at the margin here.’” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4hDveZG
STPAUL: via the Pioneer Press, VERBATIM: “St. Paul residents voted on two city-specific ballot questions Tuesday, rejecting an initiative that would raise property taxes annually — each year for 10 years — to help pay childcare costs for families in need, while opting to move municipal elections for mayor and city council to an even-year cycle to capture higher voter turn-out during presidential years…Early Wednesday morning, with all 86 precincts in the city reporting, “no” votes gained a decisive lead in the childcare subsidy ballot question, 60%-40%, while voters favored shifting municipal elections to even years by about 61%-39%.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/40Bz2ES
CONSERVATION: via Pioneer Press, VERBATIM: “Minnesota voters appeared to overwhelmingly back a ballot measure extending authorization for state lottery money use on conservation and environmental efforts, early election results showed Tuesday night. Just before 11 p.m., nearly 78% of voters said yes to the measure. … The constitutional amendment renews approval for the state using Minnesota State Lottery revenue for conservation, raises the amount of lottery money the state can spend each year and creates a new advisory council to decide how to award grants.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4fcpkxi
ERRORS: via Star Tribune live updates, VERBATIM: “A tabulator in Lakeville is working after city officials reported a problem with the machine earlier Tuesday. … A post on X around noon noted Lakeville officials are aware of an unspecified problem with a machine that records votes at Hometown Church, the city’s seventh precinct. The post states officials have sealed all ballots in a ‘sealed auxiliary collection box,’ where they will remain until they can be processed. … [Also], an official at the Secretary of State’s Office confirmed to the Minnesota Star Tribune that Koochiching County elections workers errantly transmitted test data. … The official said they would be replacing the data as soon as possible.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4hDveZG
EARLY VOTE: via Office of the Sec. of State, VERBATIM: “Local election officials have accepted 1,271,636 absentee and mail ballots for the [2024] Election. Local election officials have distributed 1,441,898 absentee and mail ballots in Minnesota since voting began on September 20. Additional absentee voting statistics are available online.” STATS: https://fluence-media.co/4htSHwF
GOTV: via a COPAL press release, VERBATIM: “As the 2024 election cycle comes to an end, COPAL is celebrating the immense success of its Minnesota Latino Vote campaign, the organization’s largest civic engagement effort to date. Designed to activate Latine communities throughout the state, this ambitious initiative mobilized over 10,000 Latine voters. … The organization is proud to announce that it more than doubled its initial goal to complete over 100,000 phone calls by election day. Instead, it made over 200,000 calls in addition to sending more than 60,000 text messages and knocking on the doors of over 5,000 Latine voters.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/48B4tRK
MORE: via a Faith in MN press release, VERBATIM: “Faith in Minnesota and its PAC Faith in Minnesota Action successfully executed a robust, relational voter engagement program in Minnesota this 2024 election season. Together, they trained 2,418 leaders to shape the state’s politics to be multi-racial, people-centered, rooted in the power of communities and relentlessly focused on making real people’s lives better. Programs led by a volunteer base of everyday people engaged Minnesota voters on a weekly basis for the last 4 months, resulting in 287,302 phone calls, door knocks, and text messages and holding 50,288 conversations with Minnesotans.”
FELON VOTE: via MPR News, VERBATIM: “The Minnesota Department of Corrections [reminded] transitional housing providers that people with a felony record are allowed to vote unless they are in prison or jail. The department issued the guidance after 35-year-old Calvin Boswell told MPR News that his supervisor at the Minneapolis work release program, Life Rebuilders, told a group of about 20 residents Monday that they wouldn’t be allowed to vote. Boswell has been in a work release program since he was released from prison in March and had planned to vote on Election Day. … Corrections Department spokesperson Shannon Loehrke said the staff member at Life Rebuilders ‘provided incorrect information which we have corrected.’” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4fdANN3
SCHOOLS: via Pioneer Press, VERBATIM: “Minnesota’s largest school districts are evenly split over holding school on Election Day this year. With many schools serving as polling places, school districts increasingly have kept students at home on the first Tuesday in November, citing concerns about parking, safety and classroom disruptions as voters stream in and out of their buildings. This year, half of the state’s 20 largest school districts are treating Election Day as a normal day, with students in class. In nine of the top 20 districts, students have the day off.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3YU8uNZ
VOTERS: The Star Tribune and the Minnesota Reformer interviewed voters across the state on election day to hear their perspectives on the issues, the candidates and more. STRIB: https://fluence-media.co/4hDveZG REFORMER: https://fluence-media.co/48EZEXn
TURNOUT: via KARE 11, VERBATIM: “Leading up to Election Day, Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon said he's hopeful for two things: high voter turnout and low drama. Speaking from a polling place in Lakeville Tuesday morning, Simon said that's exactly what he's seeing at polling locations across the state. … Dakota County Director of Elections Michelle Blue said roughly 40% of voters in the county voted early. Still, the line to vote at the Lakeville Water Treatment Facility was constant and steady Tuesday morning. Despite a soggy start to Election Day, many people stepped outside to cast their ballots — some for the very first time.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/4htDyv4
MORE: via a Star Tribune live update, VERBATIM: “At Linwood Community Recreation Center, just a few blocks from the governor’s residence, the head election judge was amazed by the voter turnout. She calculated that 77% of eligible voters in the precinct had voted by late afternoon Tuesday, a number that would only increase until polls closed at 8 p.m. First-time voters were well represented.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4hDveZG
‘MY WHOLE LIFE CHANGED’ — EMPOWERMENT TRAINING OPENS PATHWAY INTO THE TRADES: Since 2019, a partnership between Five Skies Empowerment Training and Enbridge has broadened as unions, contractors and other groups look to connect Native American job seekers to meaningful careers. “They’re gonna open the door for you,” says Joel, a program graduate. “Before the 5 Skies program, I wasn’t aware there were so many opportunities,” explains Ashley. “My whole life changed,” says Melissa. Click here to submit an application, and find out more on upcoming training. WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/3XoPg0D (SPONSORED: Enbridge)
LABOR: via WCCO-TV, VERBATIM: “A controversial proposal in Minneapolis has workers excited and some business owners talking about leaving the city. A city council committee will consider a resolution for a Labor Standards Board this week. The [board] would advise the mayor and city council on industry-specific regulations and workplace policies. … A whopping 120 restaurant owners and hospitality leaders have come out against the board. ‘I worry that this is going to continue to put our city on an island in terms of how we interact with businesses,’ said Adam Duininck, the president and CEO of the Minneapolis Downtown Council. … Council Member Aurin Chowdhury, a co-author of the resolution, says she's more concerned with the board helping other industries, like janitors and security guards, that she says have bigger labor issues. ‘The board enables working-class people who are experts in their sectors to actively participate in policy-making,’ she said.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/4emfTKe
MORE: Axios’ Torey Van Oot pointed out that the draft proposal for the Labor Standards Board was suspiciously released the day before the general election despite being worked on for at least 11 months. TWEET: https://fluence-media.co/4hxUaC3
SPORTSBETS: Via MinnPost’s Peter Callaghan, the CEO of the Running Aces horse racing track has sent a letter to the chair of the Minnesota Indian Gaming Association offering the track’s cooperation in passing sports betting legislation in the 2025 legislative session. A bill to legalize sports betting in Minnesota failed earlier this year because the tribes and tracks agreed to a deal late in the session and it didn’t come to a vote before the final deadline. The two organizations were previously at odds in public and in court over gambling rights. LETTER: https://fluence-media.co/4ejtlys TWEET: https://fluence-media.co/3Chy0Uw
MORE: Axios’ Torey Van Oot pointed out that the sports betting announcement was suspiciously released less than three hours before polls closed in an election that would decide the composition of the Minnesota Legislature. TWEET: https://fluence-media.co/4eq8XMs
MEDICARE: via Bring Me The News, VERBATIM: “UnitedHealthcare on Tuesday announced it has reached an agreement with HealthPartners that'll ensure ‘continued, uninterrupted network access’ for those enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans. … The new, multi-year contract agreement ends months of uncertainty for HealthPartners patients and Unitedhealthcare plan holders in Minnesota. Contract negotiations appeared at an impasse in July, when HealthPartners announced it would no longer accept some plans beginning in 2025 due to the insurer's coverage denial rate.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3YRuwRq
PERMITTING REFORM FOR RESPONSIBLE INDUSTRIES: Jobs for Minnesotans is committed to advancing responsible industrial projects through a predictable, timely and transparent permitting process. Broad permitting reform for all responsible industries is essential to strengthening Minnesota’s communities and advancing our state’s clean energy future. (SPONSORED: Jobs for Minnesotans)
ENDORSEMENTS: via Axios, VERBATIM: “The vast majority of America's largest newspapers [including the Star Tribune] aren't endorsing a presidential candidate this year, marking a stark departure from previous election cycles. … Many U.S. newspapers that used to be independent or family owned now belong to large newspaper groups whose owners — often hedge funds or private equity groups — have decided to pull the plug on endorsements, fearing backlash and political retribution. … The only two endorsements former President Donald Trump received from the top 100 newspapers by print circulation were from the New York Post and the Las Vegas Review-Journal, both owned by Trump allies. Trump received seven endorsements last cycle.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/48K1QNC
MEDIA: via Bring Me The News, VERBATIM: “Gray Media has reportedly laid off newsroom employees at several of its smaller market TV stations, including KEYC in Mankato. … Around 12 newsroom employees have been laid off. The company declined to specify which news staff or exactly how many were let go. Staff were notified of the layoffs on Friday, just days before Tuesday's election. … On Monday, the station posted a message on its site outlining changes to its newscasts. KEYC's Morning News Now will now broadcast the program produced at KTTC in Rochester. Changes are also coming to its noon and weekend newscasts.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4fCfip1
ECONOMICDEVELOPMENT: From Grand Rapids, a conversation about opportunities and challenges to economic growth in Greater Minnesota with Tuleah Palmer, CEO of the Blandin Foundation, Roy Smith of the IRRRB and Steve Loney from Kiesler Wellness Center. From workforce to energy costs, a thoughtful conversation on how leaders are working together to push the region’s economy forward. Mainstreet Minnesota is presented by Compeer Financial. LISTEN: https://fluence-media.co/MainstreetMN2
STEARNS CTY: via St. Cloud Live, VERBATIM: “The Stearns County Commission on Tuesday, Nov. 5, unanimously approved the first round of projects funded by the nationwide settlement with opioid manufacturers. The board approved the distribution of nearly $621,000 to eight organizations. This is only the first round of funding, and the committee expects to award other grants in the future. … The projects aim to address the epidemic of opioid addiction through prevention, recovery and harm reduction.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/40yY1bO
OLMSTED CTY: via Rochester Post Bulletin, VERBATIM: “A proposed update to Olmsted County’s land-use plan seeks to clarify the process for considering changes to designations outside city limits, but it also takes some potential control away from cities. The current process requires affected townships and cities to review requested changes to defined urban service areas before the county will review an application. … Since edge land-use changes frequently make way for the development of suburban housing, the county requirement means a city can effectively veto any attempt to change allowable uses that don't match future urban plans. … While cities must approve a land-use plan under the existing policy, township approval isn’t required, since the township board will make future zoning decisions. Under the proposed change, the process would start with the county.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3CfU5To
STILLWATER: via Pioneer Press, VERBATIM: “The Stillwater City Council on Wednesday will get its first in-depth look at plans for the new estimated $400 million Lakeview Hospital campus. … HealthPartners has submitted a concept plan review request to the Stillwater City Council for the 64-acre hospital campus. The new hospital [is] expected to open in late 2027 or early 2028. … The council will not take formal action on the proposal, but instead will be asked ‘to support the site layout and building size and give general feedback on some of the proposals,’ City Administrator Joe Kohlmann said.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4enDkCR
ROCHESTER: Via Star Tribune, VERBATIM: “The school district here will avoid making major cuts to its budget after voters decided Tuesday to support $194 million in new funding for the district over the next 10 years. With more than 68,000 votes cast, Rochester Public Schools’ operating referendum passed 57% to 43%. For the district, the seventh largest in the state with more than 17,300 students, it was the second attempt at a new tax levy in as many years after a referendum for nearly half this year’s request failed in 2023 by just 318 votes.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3NStxtY
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT: Flint Hills Resources makes fuels and other products people need and use every day — products that help keep Minnesota moving. The company does this while prioritizing safety and environmental stewardship and contributing meaningfully to the community. That’s Stewardship with a Purpose. LEARN MORE: https://fluence-media.co/3ALNT4U (SPONSORED: Flint Hills Resources)
From yesterday’s Fluence newsletters:
COUNTING: via WCCO Radio, VERBATIM: “Hennepin County Election Director Ginny Gelms says administrators have their work cut out for them due to the absentee ballot drop off deadline getting moved this year from 3:00 p.m. to 8 p.m.” GELMS: “We have five fewer hours to do it in, so we know that this will mean that the time frame during which we're ready to report unofficial results on Election night will be a little bit later than what you're used to because we will be processing those absentee ballots on election night.” READ/LISTEN: https://fluence-media.co/3As7wit
HUNTING: via Northern News Now, VERBATIM: “Minnesota firearm deer license sales are down slightly this year compared to this time last year. According to the Minnesota DNR, more than 160,000 licenses have been purchased one week before the deer opener.” WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/3YBOi1L
COLBERT: Gov. Tim Walz was a guest on CBS’s “The Late Show” with Stephen Colbert Monday night, airing an interview that was recorded Thursday in Pennsylvania. Walz discussed campaign strategy, veterans’ issues, Diet Mountain Dew and more. When asked what his “highs and lows” were on the campaign trail, Walz told Colbert the best part was seeing his former students meet him at rallies all across the country, and the worst part was gaining weight and sharing a stage with Sen. JD Vance, which Walz said was “not great.” WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/3YRn2O5
MORE TAKES: Every day, we’re sharing significant political, business and other news in additional newsletters. If you love morning take, sign up for the other Fluence tip sheets HERE: fluence-newsletters.com
TODAY: A resolution to create a Minneapolis Labor Standards Board will be presented before the City Council’s Public Health and Safety Committee at its meeting today. The hearing will begin at 1:30 p.m.
TOMORROW: via an AgriGrowth advisory, VERBATIM: “Newly inaugurated University of Minnesota President Dr. Rebecca Cunningham will be a featured speaker at the 2024 Minnesota Ag & Food Summit. … Cunningham will share her perspective on reinforcing Minnesota’s role as a global leader in agriculture and food manufacturing and how the University of Minnesota can be a vital partner. … Cunningham will join Dr. Michael Swanson, the chief agricultural economist of the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, as the first two featured speakers at this year’s summit.” The event runs from 8:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. in Minneapolis.
BDAYS: Arts leader Sarah Fossen, communication pro Chris Kelly, MBP’s Anne Neu Brindley, St. Paulite Maggie O’Reilly
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