CAUCUS TUESDAY
Wild win and Wolves lose.
It’s Caucus night, and DFLers feel a new energy that didn’t exist a few weeks ago. Republicans have a highly competitive Governor’s race which should boost turnout as well.
We gain 70 minutes of day light in February, that should help our moods.
We’ll break down the state of the. Governor’s race in a MNSider for Premium subscribers on Wednesday.
Next Monday is National Pizza Day, the 2026 Authoritative List is taking shape, send your statewide nominations.
Dogs in the dorm? What could go wrong? Let the kids suffer a little more in college.
The Star Tribune reports more lawyers are leaving the US Attorney’s office. STRIB: https://fluence-media.co/3MjAas0
Today’s morning take on WCCO Radio with Vineeta Sawkar. LISTEN: https://fluence-media.co/49WKjUE
Happy National Carrot Cake Day!
Blois - tips: bloisolson@gmail.com
Share morning take with your friends.
Sunday Take analyzed this week’s caucuses and what’s changed in the Legislature with retiring GOP Rep. Paul Torkelson. LISTEN: https://fluence-media.co/4qd7D5h
Want to manage your subscription to TheDailyAgenda.com ? HERE: https://fluence-media.co/managesubscription
The latest insight from Fluence Advisory on the loss of institutional knowledge from the Minnesota Legislature. READ: https://fluence-advisory.com/insights/
FIRST
TODAY: Precinct caucuses to decide on state convention delegates and other party business will begin at 7:00 p.m. tonight. Non-binding straw polls will give an early look at the Governor’s race.
According to their website, the DFL says it has 9,000 trained observers for caucuses.
MORE: via MPR, VERBATIM: “At precinct caucuses around the state, voters will cast straw poll ballots. Those could narrow the field of candidates running for governor. The preference ballot results aren’t binding, but they can help propel candidates to frontrunner status or shrink the pack in races with lots of hopefuls.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4bzgDxY
WHAT TO WATCH:
· If Lisa Demuth or Kendall Qualls don’t’ finish in the top 2 places one of their campaigns is essentially over.
· If the DFL preference ballot for Governor shows a large chunk of undecided, rather than supporting Amy Klobuchar there could be a lane for a far-left challenger.
GOV POLL: Via a KSTP poll, Minnesota voters would prefer Sen. Amy Klobuchar over any major Republican challengers in the race for governor. Klobuchar won every polled matchup by 14 to 20 points, with her best result being a 52% majority versus Mike Lindell, who earned 32%. Klobuchar’s worst performance was 48% versus Rep. Kristin Robbins, who still trailed by 15 points at 33%. The best performing Republicans were former candidate Scott Jensen at 35% and Speaker Lisa Demuth at 34%. The poll also showed Klobuchar’s approval rating is 48%, while 67% think Gov. Tim Walz was right to drop out. POLL: https://fluence-media.co/45H1jM3
NOTABLE: Klobuchar running even in rural Minnesota against most Republicans.
MORE: via Northern News Now’s Dan Wolfe, VERBATIM: “There’s been buzz about Sen. Grant Hauschild being on Amy Klobuchar’s shortlist for potential running mates. I asked him about it in a sit-down interview. … He wouldn’t say whether he’s been contacted by her campaign or whether he’d consider it. Hauschild only said he’ll do whatever he can to help Klobuchar win the race for governor.” TWEETS: https://fluence-media.co/4khRYAm
NOTE: Sources say it’s unlikely that Klobuchar would pick a state Senator in a close race as the DFL wants their best chance at holding the majority. The name no one is buzzing about that would be a strong pick, is Ag Commissioner Thom Petersen.
SENATE RACE: Retiring Sen. Tina Smith endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan over Rep. Angie Craig as her preferred DFL candidate one day before precinct caucuses begin. Smith previously said in multiple interviews that she did not plan to endorse a successor, but Smith and Flanagan appeared together in a social media video announcing the endorsement and criticizing the ongoing ICE surge in Minnesota. WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/3ZahMVo
FLASHBACK: Via the Feb. 14, 2025 edition of morning take, Sen. Tina Smith told reporters she was not planning to endorse a successor. SMITH: “I’m excited to see what leaders come forward. I think we have such a deep bench of talent in Minnesota. It’s not my job to pick my successor at all. That’s the job of Minnesota voters.” SEE: https://fluence-media.co/3NLBBjt
PHILLIPS: via X from fmr. Rep. Dean Phillips, VERBATIM: “Tina Smith, Peggy Flanagan, and Tim Walz publicly trashed me for advocating for a competitive Democratic primary in 2024 - helping pave the path for Trump’s return. Judgment and courage matter to me, which is why I strongly support @AngieCraigMN !”
CAUCUSES: via MinnPost, VERBATIM: “Candidates for retiring Sen. Tina Smith’s seat will face their first real test Tuesday as both Republican and Democrats vying to represent the state in the U.S. Senate fight for support in their party caucuses. … Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan [said] her campaign began last year to woo the 1,200 or so party volunteers who attend the caucuses. … Rep. Angie Craig [said] her campaign will be present at about 80% of the caucuses on Tuesday to do some last-minute politicking.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4tdA7P7
REPLACEMENT: via Facebook, Tom Horner and John Kaul think that fmr. Sen. Al Franken should be Klobuchar’s pick to fill her seat. Sometimes the past proves the current.
MNHOUSE: The House GOP announced a 2025 fundraising total of $1.742 million with $1.167 million on hand, noting in a press release that these are “all-time records…for an off-year.” As reported in morning take last week, the House DFL announced $2.627 million raised with $1.595 million on hand, which was also described as an “odd-year fundraising record.”
CONGRESSCASH: FEC data for 2025 is now finalized, so here is one last update on fundraising in federal races. Candidates not mentioned below had current totals in yesterday’s newsletters. SEE: https://fluence-media.co/4kjzQ9o
Some notes and updates since yesterday’s morning take:
CD1: DFL challenger Jake Johnson raised $750,128 with $303,336 on hand.
CD2: The FEC has updated totals in the DFL primary for CD2. In 2025, Matt Klein raised $548,226 with $15,800 in transfers and $328,327 on hand; Matt Little raised $428,844 with $155,000 in loans and $390,955 on hand; and Kaela Berg raised $132,117 with $53,162 on hand. Berg did not enter the race until Q4, while Klein raised $179,212 and Little raised $125,932 in Q4.
CD5: DFL primary challenger Latonya Reeves raised $19,057 with $182 on hand. GOP challenger John Nagel raised $64,414 with $18,828 on hand. Both candidates entered the race in Q4.
CD7: DFL challenger Erik Osberg raised $160,412 in 2025 with $87,288 on hand.
CD8: DFL challenger Chad McKenna raised $27,295 with $9,073 on hand.
The MNSider Brief: With Michele Tafoya’s entrance into the US Senate race, the latest analysis for premium subscribers came out Friday. HERE: https://fluence-media.co/3NEy8Di
A new level of insight and information….
Fluence Media introduces more - Insider Analysis & Insight from TheDailyAgenda.com
Regular deep-dive political analysis and breaking news
Monthly insight-filled briefing memo on Minnesota and Midwest economy
Early access to our Fluence Forum audio and video assets.
A morning take mug
CONDITIONS
OVERSIGHT: via MPR News, VERBATIM: “A federal judge has temporarily blocked a Trump Administration policy that barred members of Congress from making unannounced oversight visits to [ICE] detention facilities. … Rep. Kelly Morrison is a plaintiff in the case. She gained entry to the Whipple Federal Building in Minneapolis over the weekend. … Immigrants, U.S. citizens, refugees and protesters are being held at the federal facility. … Morrison described what she saw inside as ‘horrifying and heartbreaking,’ citing cold temperatures, a lack of beds [and] people held in leg shackles.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/49XrpNi
A video from Rep. Kelly Morrison on what she saw when she toured the Whipple building.
WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/4keGg9D
ABELER: via letter from Republican Sen. Jim Abeler to Border Czar Tom Homan, VERBATIM: “We took your statement of “focus” to mean, that from this point forward, a citizen or legal resident would not have to fear… First of all, please declare that out loud. Please state the obvious. We need to hear it. Please remind us that the Bill of rights is as sacred to you is it as to us. Declare that no law-abiding citizen or legal resident will be detained. That no child will be engaged in any manner. That citizens and legal residents won’t have to fear goin out of their homes, going to work or shopping.” LETTER: https://fluence-media.co/4qREnCb
FRAUD
FRAUD: via Pioneer Press, VERBATIM: “The Minnesota Department of Human Services on Monday announced a new push to scrutinize providers in state-run Medicaid programs at high risk for fraud, including a significant expansion of unannounced site visits. … Starting this week, Human Services is making a call out to Minnesota’s tens of thousands of state employees seeking individuals to fill 168 new positions to visit providers in all 87 counties. … Officials said the agency currently has ‘nowhere near’ that number of staff for direct site visits. … Training of new site inspectors is set to begin this month.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3ZMZSIs
MORE: via Rochester Post Bulletin, VERBATIM: “Over the next four months, Minnesota officials say they will visit and revalidate every Medicaid service provider within the 13 provider categories considered high-risk for fraud, waste and abuse. The ‘unprecedented’ effort [seeks] to revalidate more than 5,800 providers.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4r1RyAO
CLEAN | RELIABLE | AFFORDABLE: via Xcel Energy, VERBATIM: “We’re powering the Upper Midwest with clean, reliable, and affordable nuclear energy. For more than 50 years, our Prairie Island Nuclear Plant, located near Red Wing, MN, has been a workhorse of reliable, carbon-free energy. With two pressurized water reactors producing about 1,100 megawatts, Prairie Island generates enough electricity to power 1.5 million homes across the Upper Midwest. Unlike sources that depend on weather, nuclear energy delivers 24/7 reliability — providing the power we need today while protecting the environment for tomorrow.” LEARN MORE: https://fluence-media.co/4oCHdK9 (SPONSORED: Xcel Energy)
CAMPAIGNS
SIGNAL: via FOX 9, VERBATIM: “Last week, allegations surfaced on social media that Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan was involved in a Signal chat group under the alias ‘Flan Southside’ [to] coordinate information regarding ICE operation protests. … In an interview with FOX 9, Flanagan called the reports of her involvement ‘ridiculous.’” FLANAGAN: “That’s not me, and I would just say the way that I’m showing up for my neighbors is we are getting mutual aid and groceries to families who need it.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/4rnEvJy
SD15: via MPR News, VERBATIM: “A Minnesota man convicted and imprisoned for assaulting police officers at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, is running for a seat in the state Senate in western Minnesota. Brian Mock [is] one of multiple Republicans running for an open state Senate seat in [SD15]. … Another GOP candidate is Braxton Seifert, the son of longtime Minnesota House member and caucus leader Marty Seifert. … Seifert said Mock’s campaign does not focus much on issues facing the district.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4a5QhBf
SD50: via Bring Me The News, VERBATIM: “KARE 11 journalist Karla Hult is taking the leap into politics with a run for Minnesota Senate in 2026 [as] a Democrat. … Access to [healthcare], well-funded public schools, the protection of natural resources, the expansion of clean energy, and gun safety laws are among her stated priorities. Hult enters a crowded field of Democratic candidates, with Anita Smithson, Nelly Korman, Paul Rosenthal, John McCellan and Mick Spence already in the race.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4aplGA1
FED FEED
TROOPS: via New York Times, VERBATIM: “The military’s Northern Command has taken more than 1,500 active-duty troops in Alaska and North Carolina off heightened alert for possible deployment to Minnesota, a U.S. official said Monday. … Over the weekend, Northern Command quietly ordered the active-duty troops on standby to stand down.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3ZezAi5
SHUTDOWN: via KSTP, VERBATIM: “U.S. lawmakers still haven’t finalized a funding package to end the partial government shutdown. … As Congress debates, questions are growing about what a prolonged shutdown would mean for immigration enforcement in Minnesota. ICE agents are considered essential workers, meaning enforcement operations continue even during a shutdown. … Other DHS agencies that could be affected by a prolonged shutdown include FEMA and TSA.” READ/WATCH: https://fluence-media.co/4rr4jo7
VOTER DATA: via Rep. Pete Stauber advisory, VERBATIM: “Congressman Pete Stauber (MN-08), along with Majority Whip Tom Emmer, Congresswoman Michelle Fischbach, and Congressman Brad Finstad, introduced the Minnesota Voter Integrity Act of 2026. … The legislation prohibits the state of Minnesota from receiving federal election assistance funds until the Minnesota Secretary of State cooperates with the Department of Justice’s current federal review of the state’s registration and voting practices.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4aqERcG
MORE: Rep. Tom Emmer’s office provided a more specific description of what the bill is meant to do. EXCERPT: “This legislation would require the state of Minnesota to provide information on voting records, including same-day voter registration and election administration data, in order to continue to receive funding through the Help America Vote Act of 2002.” BILL: https://fluence-media.co/46upeP0
RESPONSE: via a Sec. Steve Simon statement, SIMON: “The proposed legislation is an irresponsible stunt. It would actively damage the security of our elections by threatening to starve Minnesota of critical federal funds that help protect our election infrastructure from harm or attack. … HAVA funding is an important part of keeping our elections secure and should never be used as a political bargaining chip.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4abNsi6
WELFARE DATA: The Star Tribune has an explainer on why the federal government has been asking Minnesota for months to provide access to its state-level welfare data. White House officials say they need Minnesota’s data to find undocumented immigrants and prevent fraud, but legal experts have called the request for private information “unprecedented and potentially illegal.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3ZerfLs
INVESTIGATIONS: via Star Tribune, VERBATIM: “State prosecutors have formally demanded that the Trump Administration turn over any evidence gathered by federal authorities after the shooting death of Renee Good. … Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty announced Monday that her office had served what are known as Touhy letters on the Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security. … [Meanwhile], a federal judge has lifted a temporary restraining order sought by Minnesota officials to prevent the U.S. government from tampering or destroying evidence from the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti by federal agents.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4ky9nFf
STATEWIDE
MAYORS: via a joint press release, VERBATIM: “A coalition of mayors announced the formation of Cities for Safe and Stable Communities. … Operation Metro Surge has created an urgent need for a unified local voice. As mayors, we [argue] current enforcement tactics are violating constitutional protections and actively harming the families we swore to serve. … Our coalition is asking federal and state elected officials for immediate de-escalation and acknowledgement of economic harms, including potential 2026 relief funds to cities.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/45MMzLH
RAMSEY CTY: via Pioneer Press, VERBATIM: “The Ramsey County Board will use $1.95 million in state grant money to acquire properties to serve as therapeutic treatment homes for youth in the juvenile court system. Funded through the state Department of Public Safety, the first home is expected to open by the end of the year and the county is currently negotiating with outside organizations for services. … Each facility will house up to six young people.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/4abKlXs
ST PAUL: via MPCA advisory, VERBATIM: “Inadequate stormwater protections at a Saint Paul project have netted fines for the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT) and a metro-based asphalt paving company. The MPCA has fined MnDOT $18,000, while the agency has levied an $11,000 penalty against Bituminous Roadways for stormwater permit violations.”
STILLWATER: via Pioneer Press, VERBATIM: “Stillwater Area High School will move to block scheduling next fall, with each student taking four classes one day and three different classes the next. The change will give students more opportunities to take elective courses and allow for fewer, longer classes per day. It also will cut down on the number of transitions in hallways, where behavior problems often arise, officials say.” READ: https://fluence-media.co/3ZayNyK
NEXT
TODAY: Gov. Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison will host a joint press conference to “address the impact that the federal detention of children is having on kids and families,” per a release. Education Commissioner Willie Jett will also attend. The event is at 12:45 p.m.
TOMORROW: GOP Rep. Kristin Robbins will testify before the U.S. Senate regarding fraud in Minnesota.
TOMORROW: DFL Sen. Aric Putnam will hold a public town hall in St. Cloud at 6:30 p.m.
FEB 17: The Minnesota Legislature’s 2026 session will begin on Tuesday, Feb. 17 at 12:00 noon.
BDAYS: Athletic’s Jon Krawczynski, Jax’s Bill Kozlak, fmr. Rep. Phil Krinkie, OG Vikings PR Guy Bob Hagan, fmr. Lt. Gov. Yvonne Prettner Solon, fmr. Mpls Councilor Gary Schiff
SPEAKER: If you’re looking for a speaker about the “Signal vs. Noise” dynamic of today’s politics and the 2026 election. EMAIL: BloisOlson@gmail.com.
SPONSORS: Sponsorships are available to reach over 30,000 readers per day on Fluence’s tip sheets and website, TheDailyAgenda.com – email BloisOlson@gmail.com.
Send us your tips at BloisOlson@gmail.com
IN MEMORIAM: morning take is dedicated in memory of Melissa Hortman.